“As new energy options emerge to meet global demand, nations that lead stand to gain; should the U.S. sit on the sidelines, it does so at considerable risk to our national security,” advises the latest report from CNA’s Military Advisory Board (MAB), a group of retired generals and admirals.

U.S. prosperity and national security depend directly on the prosperity and stability of our partner countries and competing countries around the world. Today, water-driven stresses are, with increasing frequency, undermining economic productivity, weakening governance systems, and fraying social cohesion. Water scarcity has created a context of human and societal need wherein water stress has undermined the vitality of rural livelihoods, driven broad migratory movements, become a weapon of war, contributed to the growth of insurgencies and terrorist networks, and given rise to increased demand for U.S. development, humanitarian, and military assistance.

“There’s a long list of crises that can have a natural resource base,” said Anne C. Richard, former assistant secretary of state for population, refugees, and migration, at a Stimson Center panel on June 13, 2017, on the impacts of climate change on human security and mobility. The panelists included Kelly McFarland of Georgetown’s Institute for the Study of Diplomacy (ISD), Rod Schoonover of the National Intelligence Council, and Sally Yozell, director of Stimson’s Environmental Security Program.

“There’s a lot you can do to mitigate risk once you acknowledge the risk exists,” said John Conger, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies at a June 5th briefing on Capitol Hill. Convened by the Environmental and Energy Study Institute, Center for Climate and Security,  and the Henry M. Jackson Foundation, the panel of former Department of Defense (DOD) officials and retired military officers included Sherri Goodman, senior fellow at the Wilson Center, and three members of the Military Advisory Board: Brigadier General Gerald Galloway, General Ron Keys, and Rear Admiral Ann C. Phillips.

Scientists agree that many countries in tropical, subtropical, and arid regions should expect changes to water availability and supply from climate change. The U.S. intelligence community has likewise warned of water-driven challenges not only for countries directly affected by water changes, but indirectly to various U.S. national security interests. Perhaps not surprisingly then, the popular literature has been quite clear about prophesizing wars over water.

In 2012, the U.S. National Intelligence Council judged that within the next 10 years, water problems would be a major contributor to instability in “many” countries that are of interest to the United States. South and Southeast Asia, with its many transboundary river basins, large populations, and geopolitical flashpoints, is one among a number of hotspots where such instability could occur.

Why is Malawi, one of the poorest countries in the world, so peaceful? According to the country’s first female president, Joyce Banda, women get the credit: “When women are in charge, when women control the land, when the children belong to the women, when domestic violence is minimum, then you find more tranquility and peace,” said Banda, now a Wilson Center Distinguished Fellow, at an April 25th event co-sponsored by the Wilson Center’s Women in Public Service Project and Plan International USA.

In a world rapidly churning out unpredictable political shocks, intelligence analysts occasionally need to clear their heads of the daily barrage of newsworthy events and instead work with simple theories that discern the direction and speed of trends and help predict their outcomes. Political demography, the study of population age structures and their relationships to political trends and events, has helped some analysts predict geopolitical changes in a world that, from time to time, appears utterly chaotic.