A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Possibilities for Peace and Conflict at COP28

October 2023 was the world’s warmest month in history, a fact which underscores the escalation of the climate crisis. It also supports official reports on adaptation and emission gaps which provide pessimistic outlooks for the future of peace in conflict-affected areas.

The annual multilateral Conference of the Parties (COP) has become one of the most important meetings on the global agenda. So the fact that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will host COP28 starting this week in Dubai—on the coattails of another Arab country, Egypt, hosting COP27 in 2022—is a big deal. Bringing such important international meetings to the Global South is a step forward in decentering and reorienting global climate action.

Future projections of social disturbance due to climate change and ecological pressures provide little optimism for peace in conflict-affected areas over the coming decades. Yet, can we identify current hotspots and future areas of conflict risk? The fourth Ecological Threat Report (ETR), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace, attempts to do so by taking on the monumental task of evaluating the relationship between ecological threats and peace.

The new report documents a world of growing ecological threats and declining social resilience in the states and territories most vulnerable to a changing climate. And by assessing ecological threats, societal resilience, and levels of peacefulness at the state, territorial, subnational, and city levels, the report also finds a strong correlation between ecological threats and levels of peacefulness.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

A Fifth National Climate Assessment

The US Global Change Research Program launched the fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA)  on Monday, November 13. Published once every five years, the NCA is the United States’ leading report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses.

In 2001, the UN General Assembly declared November 6 the International Day for Preventing the Exploitation of the Environment in War and Armed Conflict. In the 22 years since, both the impact of the exploitation of the environment during war—and the centrality of natural resources in establishing peace—have gained greater global recognition.

Panama Canal’s Water Woes Threaten International Trade Flow

The Panama Canal has operated as a gateway between the Atlantic to the Pacific for more than a century, relying on water to raise and lower the ships that help fuel international trade. But a recent drought has disrupted the normal functioning of the Canal’s locks, cutting into Panama’s revenue and also causing problems for global supply chains.

Nowhere is China’s critical mineral dominance greater than in rare earth supply chains. In 2022, the US government estimated that China controlled “nearly 60 percent of mined production, over 85 percent of processing capacity, and over 90 percent of permanent magnet production.”