Myanmar’s inter-ethnic disputes undermine an otherwise favorable backdrop for a peaceful democratic transition, write Rachel Blomquist and Richard Cincotta in New Security Beat’s most read story last month. Their analysis was published in April 2016, but it presciently foreshadows the current crisis. Through their multi-dimensional assessment of the demographic tension in Myanmar, the authors show that “[t]he path to democracy seems to cut directly through the Rohingya issue.”

Barbuda—an island once full of people—has been rendered completely uninhabitable by Hurricane Irma. Every single resident was evacuated from the island, and some are not planning to return. Climate-induced migration and displacement is not usually this dramatic, but it is not uncommon: Since 2008, UNHCR estimates that an average 21.5 million people each year have been forcibly displaced by weather-related natural disasters, like floods, storms, and wildfires.

It is encouraging to see that the United Nations Security Council is beginning to acknowledge the transboundary dimensions of fragility and conflict, as demonstrated by its newly launched Report of the Secretary-General on the situation in the Lake Chad Basin region. The report, which was presented in the Security Council on 13 September 2017, emphasizes the need for regional responses and the enhanced cooperation of different UN and humanitarian agencies as important steps to addressing the unfolding humanitarian crisis. However, while regional responses to address the regional security challenge are desirable, the report would have been stronger if it had highlighted the underlying environmental contributions of the region’s fragility. 

“This is not an island issue, this is not a Caribbean issue, this is an issue that is [also] critical for us,” says Roger-Mark De Souza, the Wilson Center’s director of population, environmental security, and resilience in a recent video interview. “For us in the United States we have to continue to recognize that we ourselves are also vulnerable.” De Souza remains hopeful about the possibility of rebuilding and rebounding in the face of devastation, but also presses the importance of generating response mechanisms which address environmental hazards before they manifest into disasters. “That means planning, it means investing in community mobilization mechanisms, it means thinking about ways we provide humanitarian assistance.”

As the Senate returns from recess, passing the annual National Defense Authorization Act will be one of its top priorities—and this year it could include a potentially controversial amendment directing the Pentagon to assess the impact of climate change on national security. In the House, the Langevin amendment surprisingly garnered enough Republican support to withstand a challenge in July. Since then, two more senior military appointees have testified to the importance of understanding the challenges climate change poses to national security. 

Water-related challenges in El Salvador have acquired far greater significance over the past decade as they have intersected with other social problems including migration, criminal violence, and drug trafficking. When combined, these factors pose threats to domestic and regional stability. Damaging heavy rains, droughts, and rising temperatures are exacerbated by steadily intensifying El Niño oscillations and threaten the production of staple and export crops.  The declining viability of rural livelihoods is driving many farming families to migrate to urban centers or across borders. Food security is a constant concern across the region, and millions already rely on humanitarian assistance. Infrastructure has been damaged repeatedly by floods and raging rivers. El Salvador can mitigate many of these risks by employing ecological landscape restoration.  Improving the soil’s capacity to retain and regulate water will help maintain both agricultural and ecological viability.

Nigeria is ranked among the most fragile states in the world. The country faces significant water challenges, which vary greatly from one region to another. Weak governance exacerbates these water challenges, while conflicts over water resources make governance more difficult. There are three main geographical flashpoints where conflict over water is likely to break out. In the north and northeast, Boko Haram has waged a violent insurgent campaign since 2010; among their demands is government provision of clean water. In Nigeria’s Middle Belt, changing rainfall patterns are limiting the grazing area of Muslim Fulani herders, who then encroach on the land of predominantly Christian farmers. Conflict over these lands killed more Nigerians than Boko Haram in 2016. Finally, in the Niger Delta, militant groups are attacking oil infrastructure, partially motivated by conflict over rights to land and waterways. Oil spills also contribute to food insecurity and malnutrition in this region.