Climate change is being increasingly framed as a security issue—a “threat multiplier” that can amplify the risks of breakdowns in peacefulness. Yet, even extreme climate hazards do not always lead to higher levels of violence.

It is important to take an inclusive and tangible approach to protecting civilians by protecting the environment during armed conflicts. In recent decades, the link between conflict, the environment and the protection of civilians has become painstakingly clear. From Iraq to Ukraine, Libya to Yemen, dozens of incidents have surfaced where environmental damage resulting from conflict has led to acute or chronic health risks to civilians and their communities, undermining their socioeconomic development.

“Action is needed today,” said EcoPeace Middle East’s Palestinian Co-Director Nada Majdalani. EcoPeace’s Palestinian and Israeli Co-Directors spoke at a recent session of the United Nations Security Council that focused on potential solutions to the decades-old Palestinian-Israeli crisis. They emphasized the importance of cooperation over shared water resources to help address human health and national, regional, and global security concerns. While EcoPeace has been working to foster cooperation over water for more than 25 years, as a way to build peace in the Middle East, this was the first time the trilateral organization briefed the Security Council.

One factor frequently underestimated in the global migration discussion is climate change, said James Hollifield, a Wilson Center Global Fellow, in a recent episode of Wilson NOW. Resulting in both internal displacement and international forced migration, climate-induced migration is set to become a complex problem. So far, there are no international agreements protecting those who may be displaced by climate-induced hardships. Hollifield anticipates regions in Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia will be significantly impacted by these dynamics and notes that Central America is already dealing with challenges of climate-induced displacement, in part due to increasing failure of cash-crops like coffee.

Water serves as a tool for resilience only when access to it is consistent and the system for making it consistent is in place, said David De Armey, Director of International Partnerships for Water for Good, an international NGO. He spoke at a recent Wilson Center event, “Water as a Tool for Resilience in Times of Crisis,” the second event in a three-part series, Water Security for a Resilient World, sponsored by the Wilson Center, Winrock International, the Sustainable Water Partnership, and USAID. Water for Good monitors 80 percent of wells across seven provinces in Central African Republic (CAR), he said. By keeping the water infrastructure working, the nonprofit creates a stable environment within an unstable country. “Thus,” he said, “we see reliability and services as a tool for resilience.”

How do we plan for disasters that have never occurred before? One million species are at risk of extinction in the near future from environmental changes. The frequency of historic tropical storms is increasing. The rapidly melting permafrost in the Arctic is placing unprecedented pressures on northern infrastructure. Given the overwhelming and unpredictable nature of new disaster risks, it is not clear what the appropriate responses should be. Our book, Disaster Security: Using Military and Intelligence Planning for Energy and Environmental Risks, addresses how to assess unique environmental hazards and disaster risks, based on tools used by the U.S. intelligence and military communities. The book draws on lessons learned from developing, applying, and translating scenarios and simulations (or wargames) to plan for future environmental security risks.

As researchers investigate the connection between climate change and conflict, the relative power of communities and individuals attempting to cope with climate change has become a recurring theme. While climate change may not directly cause conflict, it may be inextricably woven into pre-existing conflicts of power, ethnicity, and economic interest.