The UN Environment Programme has described Africa as the most vulnerable region in the world to climate change. Despite only being responsible for 3% of global emissions, the continent has been battered by extreme weather events, including droughts, cyclones, wildfires, and sandstorms. One in three people across Africa faces water scarcity. The continent’s agricultural sector, which represents a significant share of African countries’ GDP and employment, is highly exposed to climate change.

African informal migration to Europe raises human insecurity issues for states in both Africa and Europe. This challenge was underscored almost a decade ago by the arrival of about a million migrants and refugees on the shores of Europe.

Over the past several months, members of the foreign affairs and development communities have heaped a great deal of attention—and interpretation—on the pace of demographic change in Nigeria.

News about global climate impacts that elevate mortality, wreak weather havoc, and create massive displacement is inescapable. And those are just the stories that make the headlines. Droughts in Africa are estimated to impact 250 million people and displace 700 million more by 2030. Climate impacts brought on by El Niño are devastating the food supply chain, exacerbating Guatemala’s struggle to reduce childhood malnutrition.

The idea of climate change as a “threat multiplier” has been gaining steam since it was first proposed roughly 15 years ago. This framing acknowledges that climate can interact with existing political, social, and demographic conditions to heighten communities’ security risks—which in turn suggests that problem-solving in the face of these risks must be interdisciplinary.

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) 2023 State of the World Population (SWOP) Report offers a chance to reflect on what’s at stake in debates over global population. “The question is not whether the human population is too large or too small. The question is whether everyone can exercise their fundamental human right to choose the number and spacing of their children,” said Sarah Craven, Chief of the Washington Office of UNFPA at the virtual D.C. launch of the report at the Wilson Center on April 26, 2023.  

When a military-led or military-influenced coup d’état occur in a foreign country, does evidence from demographic research merit consideration in the U.S. foreign policy response? It’s a question that U.S. policymakers should be asking as deteriorating political conditions in West Africa come increasingly into confluence with the limited tools available either to deter or respond to illegal and extra-legal forms of political succession.