Scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have predicted an El Niño event between late 2023 and early 2024. El Niño is a complex climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator that typically happens every two to seven years. This phenomenon amplifies the likelihood of severe weather events in specific regions due to changes it creates in atmospheric circulation patterns, which escalate and initiate consequences for the environment, economy, and human health.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

In Conflict-Affected Somalia, Climate Change Adds to Migration Pressures

In the Somalian coastal town of Hobyo, thousands of residents—some of whom settled there to flee the country’s civil war—are starting to leave. Why? Their homes are being engulfed by sand.

Climate change is a security concern due to its role as a risk multiplier, aggravating political, social, and economic vulnerabilities, straining resources, and undermining institutions. And as climate change intensifies, its impact on military operations around the world, including UN peacebuilding efforts, will grow in tandem.

One in every 23 people is expected to need humanitarian assistance in 2023. That is a record 339 million this year alone. During such humanitarian crises, the needs of women, newborns and adolescents are often unmet, with devastating consequences. In fact, in 2023, 58 percent of global maternal deaths, 50 percent of newborn deaths, and 51 percent of stillbirths worldwide occur in the 29 countries with a UN humanitarian response plan or regional response plan.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Climate Change and Migration: Ensuring Safe Access for Women and Girls

A new report from UN Women found that climate change poses a significant threat gender equality. In particular, changes in weather patterns and extreme events exacerbate vulnerability among women and girls and leads them to seek safety and opportunities through increased migration.

Four months ago, the resident medical officer at the HIV and AIDS clinic in Kampala, Uganda reported that the clinic treated up to 50 patients a day. Now, the clinic is relatively empty, and supplies of antiretroviral therapy (ART) pile up, unused.

The Arctic was once untouched and pristine. However, over the years, the polar environment has experienced ecological damage caused by extensive resource exploration, military activities, and contamination from sources originating outside of the region. The extent and implications of the human-induced pollution legacy are still awaiting comprehensive estimation, measures, and solutions.

When the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) declared the beginning of an El Niño event on June 8, 2023, the recurring climate pattern featured in headlines all over the world as media outlets sought to cover its anticipated impacts.

A recent Water @ Wilson event –“The Significance of the Coming El Niño: Understanding the Science and Preparing for its Impacts”—brought together experts at the Wilson Center to explain the complex science behind El Niño and explore its regional implications. The speakers also surveyed the policy tools at our disposal to prepare for its significant climate effects.