Scenario planning has a long history. The RAND Corporation employed it heavily in planning for potential U.S. responses to nuclear war and 16^th century Spanish Jesuit theologians pointed to the idea as proof of free will. But in many respects this powerful set of methodological tools for managing complexity and uncertainty remains underused, especially beyond the defense, intelligence, and business communities.

As Pope Francis gets into high gear on his visit to the United States, it’s worth reviewing details and contexts in the extraordinary message to Catholics and the rest of the planet in “On Care for Our Common Home,” the encyclical he issued earlier this year.

The board of the United Nations’ lead organization on trade and development, called UNCTAD, released an assessment of Gaza’s development challenges during their annual meeting in Geneva this month and the news is not good. In 2012, the UN warned that a “herculean” development effort would be to keep pace with Gaza’s rapid population growth. Since then, more fighting with Israel has made things worse, particularly with regard to water and food security. Ninety-five percent of the water from Gaza’s coastal aquifer is unsafe for drinking without treatment, the report says. Contamination and over-extraction may even render it unusable by next year and damage may be irreversible if not addressed in the next five years.

In the long term, improving maternal and child health is as critical to national security as any problem in Pakistan today, said a panel of experts including Minister of National Health Services Saira Afzal Tarar at the Wilson Center on September 9.

Many have noted inequality as fuel for conflict. It can serve to exacerbate grievances amongst those who have less within unequal contexts, which can in turn serve as a mobilizing factor in fueling violence. Alternatively, it can make the “prize” of conflict larger – within the most unequal societies, the poor have less to lose and more to gain.

According to recent polling, climate change is seen as the single most threatening international challenge around the world, and there’s evidence that all that worry is taking a psychological toll. Adding to droughts, floods, extreme weather, and die-offs, psychologists are observing higher levels of anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder in certain areas and professions. Even people who do not actively stress about global warming or view it as a major threat may still suffer psychological trauma from its effects.

More than 80 percent of the estimated 42 million people living in Central Africa’s Lake Victoria Basin depend on fishing or farming for survival. Given this overwhelming reliance on natural resources, the lake’s deteriorating condition – driven by climate change, agriculture, pollution, deforestation, overfishing, and industrialization – has far-reaching implications.

An advisory released this August by the U.S. National Weather Service warned this year’s El Niño could be among the strongest ever recorded, lasting well into the first few months of 2016.