The recent conflict between Iran and Israel, as well as Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, have done more than starkly expose the risks of geopolitical instability in the Gulf.  It has also underscored the vulnerability of India’s energy security due to its heavy reliance on fossil fuel imports, and particularly crude oil transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.

The global energy transition is often framed as a balancing act between climate commitments on one hand, and sufficient energy and economic security on the other. That framing assumes the transition will mean less: less energy, less growth, and a steady decline in fossil fuel use. But this rhetoric is, as Ambassador Anthony Agotha put it at last month’s Berlin Climate Security Conference a “false choice.”

A window into what we’re reading in the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program 

Assessment of UNESCO Sites Reveals Climate Impacts (Mongabay)  

Initial data from the first ever global biodiversity and climate assessment indicates that 98% of UNESCO’s 2,200+ World Heritage Sites, Biosphere Reserves, and Geoparks have experienced at least one climate-related extreme event since 2000, including massive wildfires, droughts, and retreating glaciers. The effort to track such effects will now be augmented by UNESCO’s new Sites Navigator, a geospatial platform that integrates over 40 datasets to track climate impacts, biodiversity loss, and socioeconomic conditions in real time. 

A window into what we’re reading at the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program 

“Intractable” systemic problems mean carbon offsets fail to cut global heating  (The Guardian) 

A recent review of 25 years of evidence found that carbon credit quality issues stem from deep-seated structural flaws, and not isolated cases of fraud. Researchers point to four major flaws that undermine most carbon offset projects. The worst problems include issuing credits for already-planned projects, impermanent solutions (forests that later burn), incidences of leakage (such as protecting one forest area while pushing logging elsewhere), and double-counting which allows both seller and buyer to claim the same emission reduction.  

In a rural, hard-to-reach area of Blantyre district in southern Malawi, Ephraim Louis cannot imagine where his life would be without the solar panel on the roof of his house. “I am not a captive of darkness anymore,” says Louis, 42. “It’s been more than 10 years since I installed this [solar panel] system. We still don’t have the main grid anywhere near us and no one here thinks it will ever come.” 

As 2025 marches into its third month, the governance challenges that accompany rising demand for natural resources are not only on the front burner—they are proliferating—and  becoming entangled with the drivers of conflict and cooperation.

The heated competition for resources has bubbled up in a proposed billion-dollar deal for Ukrainian minerals now making global headlines. The view that critical minerals like lithium, manganese, and others could become bargaining chips in potential peace talks demonstrates how central they’ve become to global competition—and to the economic and political future of countries around the world.

Much of the current narrative surrounding critical minerals puts speed and competition in the foreground. Yet the how of mining matters immensely to create and maintain stable mineral supply chains. Reliable and diversified supply chains create win-win scenarios for all stakeholders by incorporating best-in-class environmental standards and true community partnerships.

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

EU Parliament Suspends Rwandan Critical Mineral Pact Over Links to DRC Conflict (Mongabay)

Rwanda and the DRC both have large reserves of critical minerals essential to the clean energy transition. Yet the EU has voted to suspend a cooperation agreement on mineral extraction in the region after the Rwandan-backed rebel group M23 seized key areas in the DRC’s eastern provinces.