Tracking signs and signals is one of the hallmarks of foresight professionals. They are always on the prowl for novel products and technologies that promise to change the world. Sustainable aviation fuel made from biomass or non-biological sources like CO2 is one innovation on their radar. The increasingly popular generative AI technology is another, especially since its proponents claim it will revolutionize early disease detection, unleash new forms of creative arts, transform engineering, and reshape architecture.

On the same day Japan began wastewater releases from the Fukushima nuclear power plant in late August 2023, the website of China’s customs agency announced the country would “completely suspend the import of aquatic products originating from Japan.”

Throughout history, women have played crucial leadership roles during wartime, even if their contributions were not always well-documented or recognized. In times of conflict, societal norms sometimes shift, allowing women to step into positions of authority that might have been traditionally reserved for men. Despite indisputable evidence of women’s leadership and bravery during conflict, however, women continue to be construed as “victims” and “passive actors”—rather than the political agents, leaders, soldiers, and visionaries that they are.

The annual multilateral Conference of the Parties (COP) has become one of the most important meetings on the global agenda. So the fact that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will host COP28 starting this week in Dubai—on the coattails of another Arab country, Egypt, hosting COP27 in 2022—is a big deal. Bringing such important international meetings to the Global South is a step forward in decentering and reorienting global climate action.

Future projections of social disturbance due to climate change and ecological pressures provide little optimism for peace in conflict-affected areas over the coming decades. Yet, can we identify current hotspots and future areas of conflict risk? The fourth Ecological Threat Report (ETR), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace, attempts to do so by taking on the monumental task of evaluating the relationship between ecological threats and peace.

The new report documents a world of growing ecological threats and declining social resilience in the states and territories most vulnerable to a changing climate. And by assessing ecological threats, societal resilience, and levels of peacefulness at the state, territorial, subnational, and city levels, the report also finds a strong correlation between ecological threats and levels of peacefulness.