When the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) declared the beginning of an El Niño event on June 8, 2023, the recurring climate pattern featured in headlines all over the world as media outlets sought to cover its anticipated impacts.

A recent Water @ Wilson event –“The Significance of the Coming El Niño: Understanding the Science and Preparing for its Impacts”—brought together experts at the Wilson Center to explain the complex science behind El Niño and explore its regional implications. The speakers also surveyed the policy tools at our disposal to prepare for its significant climate effects.

News about global climate impacts that elevate mortality, wreak weather havoc, and create massive displacement is inescapable. And those are just the stories that make the headlines. Droughts in Africa are estimated to impact 250 million people and displace 700 million more by 2030. Climate impacts brought on by El Niño are devastating the food supply chain, exacerbating Guatemala’s struggle to reduce childhood malnutrition.

The impacts of a changing climate touch every region of the globe, but they are acutely felt by people in Uganda, where floods, droughts, and shifting rainfall patterns disrupt agricultural productivity, livelihoods, and the health and well-being of millions of people. According to the ND-GAIN index, Uganda is the 13^th most vulnerable nation in the world, and action there is urgently needed to better prepare for and adapt to climate change’s impacts.

For thousands of years, natural factors like rainfall and temperature helped determine the fate of economies and societies. For thousands of years, humans also engaged in human trafficking and kept one another as enslaved people. But as human prosperity increased exponentially beginning in the 19^th century, it may have seemed that such concerns were relics of the past.

Climate change has become part of our daily lexicon. Rarely does a week pass when a hurricane, drought, wildfire, or some other climate disruption is not front page news. These headlines often offer dire predictions of mass migration as well—a bracing vision of hordes of people moving to greener pastures, often found further inland and further north, where some political leaders leverage the narrative to push their own agendas.

Whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting. Mark Twain may or may not have said it, but it gets repeated because it rings true. Water is central to human wellbeing, from drinking water and hygiene to growing food, producing electricity, and supporting identity-defining landscapes.  

“One of the challenges of responding to climate risks is that climate’s impacts and how those impacts interact with existing systems on the ground are so varied and specific to a given place,” said Lauren Risi, Director of the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change & Security Program, at a recent PeaceCon conference panel on climate change, violence, and migration in Central America. “But there is also an opportunity in how we respond to develop more agile, just, and sustaining programs and policies that go beyond a singular focus on responding to climate change and instead build the overall resilience of communities.”