When the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) declared the beginning of an El Niño event on June 8, 2023, the recurring climate pattern featured in headlines all over the world as media outlets sought to cover its anticipated impacts.

A recent Water @ Wilson event –“The Significance of the Coming El Niño: Understanding the Science and Preparing for its Impacts”—brought together experts at the Wilson Center to explain the complex science behind El Niño and explore its regional implications. The speakers also surveyed the policy tools at our disposal to prepare for its significant climate effects.

Gunfire erupted at the border of the Afghan Nimroz Province and Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan Province on May 27, 2023, amid rising tensions over water rights, killing troops on both sides.

Iranian and Afghan government officials have blamed each other for triggering the incident. But whatever the cause, the tensions over water flows between these nations have been simmering for at least a century. Indeed, in 1999, under the first iteration of the Taliban, flows were restricted completely causing damage to the delicate Hamoun Region—a registered UNESCO biosphere site of social and ecological importance.

At a recent Brookings Institution event titled Climate Change, Food Insecurity, and Migration in the Middle East, Ferid Belhaj, Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) at the World Bank, observed that the MENA region relies heavily on grain exported from both Ukraine and Russia. When the 2022 invasion reduced grain exports to a trickle, the entire region suffered heavily.

A new initiative by the Climate Action Reserve, a nonprofit organization based in Los Angeles, could play a significant role in curbing emissions of a potent climate pollutant from chemical plants in China while filling a gap in international climate agreements and China’s environmental regulations. 

Nigeria is home to many violent conflicts, one of which is the farmers-herders conflict that has posed severe security challenges in the country. The human toll of the violence has been immense, claiming more lives than the Boko Haram insurgency. Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed or displaced. Nigeria has also experienced increased ethnic, regional, and religious polarization, and this crisis has undermined national stability and unity.

The increase in global temperatures by over 1 degree Celsius since preindustrial times is already having broad and significant impacts. An ongoing multi-year drought in Eastern Africa, for instance, has been attributed to global warming. Hunger crises, displacement, and exacerbated conflict between pastoralist groups are some of the reported dire consequences.

Climate change’s ripples reach every corner of the globe, but nowhere is their geopolitical impact more pronounced than in China’s relations with the United States. This is especially the case as the undisputed security risks posed to both nations by climate change become intertwined with broader arcs of political, economic, and military competition on both sides.