When COP28 begins in the United Arab Emirates in late November of this year, the multifaceted connections between climate and conflict are expected to receive greater attention from participants than they have at previous conferences.  

While there is scant direct causal evidence to suggest that climate change causes conflict, there is a growing body of information that it can influence the risk of conflict by hurting economies, changing broad patterns of human behavior and movement, and straining social cleavages.  

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Peace and Prosperity in the Sahel: Climate Security is Key

Liptako-Gourma is a landlocked region located on the borders of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. It possesses significant mineral, water, and biodiversity resources, and strategically positioned for both economic opportunities and cultural exchange.

Senior Western officials have received “sobering” reports on the counteroffensive  in Ukraine. As both sides continue to rain artillery shells and missiles across the country, Ukrainian forces have struggled to make progress on the front lines in both the south and the east.

Meanwhile, a different but related struggle is occurring across the country. Ukraine’s environment is being poisoned by the by-products of this war; polluting the land, water, and air, and exposing humans, plants, and animals to high levels of toxins. 

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Deforestation Dynamics in Colombia: The Role of Armed Groups

A 29% drop in deforestation in Colombia in 2022 was labeled as a victory for President Gustavo Petro. Yet there is another reason behind the decrease. Armed groups, such as the Estado Mayor Central (EMC), have imposed logging bans in areas under their control, and levy fines amounting to 251 dollars per hectare.

Earlier this summer, the Armed Forces of the Philippines spotted dozens of Chinese fishing vessels in—or very near to—the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. This influx occurred just weeks after the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced, “El Niño is here.”

Dr. Jeff Colgan is Director of the Climate Solutions Lab at the Watson Institute for Public and International Affairs at Brown University, and a keen observer of the interplay between energy and security. His new white paper,  “Letting Europe’s Energy Crisis Go to Waste: The Ukraine War’s Massive Fossil Fuel Costs Fail to Accelerate Renewables,” co-authored by Alexander S. Gard-Murray and Miriam Hinthorn, offers a new window into how an event with the broad potential to reshape energy policy to more sustainable ends has failed to meet the moment. Colgan spoke to us about the institute’s new research and the lessons learned about conflict’s influence on the energy transition more than a year into the Ukraine conflict.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Thirst for Relief: Prolonged Drought Intensifies Afghanistan’s Humanitarian Crisis

Afghanistan is the world’s sixth most affected country by climate-related threats—and its present acute challenge is water scarcity, intensified by climate change. The country is heavily reliant on agriculture, which makes up a third of its GDP.

The riparian states of the Aral Sea Basin are experiencing growing water demands, land, and environmental degradation, aging and inefficient infrastructure, and the rapid melting of glaciers. These increasing challenges are compounded by the lack of an effective transboundary water governance system.