Nowhere is China’s critical mineral dominance greater than in rare earth supply chains. In 2022, the US government estimated that China controlled “nearly 60 percent of mined production, over 85 percent of processing capacity, and over 90 percent of permanent magnet production.”

The global transition to low-carbon energy is spurring new momentum to produce and secure the mineral inputs necessary for renewable technologies. Yet meeting demand may prove difficult. From electric cars to wind turbines, essential renewable energy technologies often require more minerals than fossil fuel-powered infrastructure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that efforts to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement could lead to a fourfold increase in mineral demand by 2040.

Many developing countries today face the dual challenges of development and decarbonization, racing against climate change that makes the latter increasingly urgent. This dilemma brings China’s railway investments in Africa under the spotlight. Can stakeholders of these megaprojects achieve the goal of boosting host countries’ economies while mitigating the socio-environmental risks of these ventures?

The UN Environment Programme has described Africa as the most vulnerable region in the world to climate change. Despite only being responsible for 3% of global emissions, the continent has been battered by extreme weather events, including droughts, cyclones, wildfires, and sandstorms. One in three people across Africa faces water scarcity. The continent’s agricultural sector, which represents a significant share of African countries’ GDP and employment, is highly exposed to climate change.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Land Rights Prevail: Indigenous Groups Celebrate Major Win in Brazil

On September 21, Brazil’s Supreme Court upheld Indigenous peoples’ rights to their traditional lands. The judges rejected a proposed cutoff date, which stipulated that Indigenous communities could only hold land titles if they were physically present on the land on October 5, 1988: the date on which Brazil’s current Constitution was adopted.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can significantly affect the country’s domestic and overseas energy transition and decarbonization agenda. Electricity projects in China’s BRI investments, contrary to popular impressions of being part of a monolithic “project of the century,” have divergent implications for the host country’s shift away from coal-based power plants.

In 2021, US Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III referred to climate change as an “existential threat”—a term traditionally reserved for nuclear weapons. Yet two years and several strategic plans later, tangible progress to mitigate and prepare for this threat remains elusive, especially on the international scale where the greatest impacts could be realized.