A window into what we’re reading at the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program 

As COP30 Concludes, Experts Call for Reform (Reuters) 

Interviews with experts attending COP30 highlight a growing movement for reform to the UN climate negotiations. In particular, there is alignment on a key critique of the current COP structure which calls for a full consensus of nearly 200 countries to make decisions. Since this requirement historically has allowed more ambitious efforts to be blocked during negotiations, suggestions for reform have included the following: a shift to a majority-vote model, holding COP every other year, convening smaller action-focused gatherings, and downsizing COP to exclude big business contingents. 

The recent conflict between Iran and Israel, as well as Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, have done more than starkly expose the risks of geopolitical instability in the Gulf.  It has also underscored the vulnerability of India’s energy security due to its heavy reliance on fossil fuel imports, and particularly crude oil transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.

The global energy transition is often framed as a balancing act between climate commitments on one hand, and sufficient energy and economic security on the other. That framing assumes the transition will mean less: less energy, less growth, and a steady decline in fossil fuel use. But this rhetoric is, as Ambassador Anthony Agotha put it at last month’s Berlin Climate Security Conference a “false choice.”

A window into what we’re reading at the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program

Revisions to Indonesian Law Promote Unregulated Mining (The Diplomat)

Since gold was discovered in 2011 on Mount Botak in Indonesia, thousands of miners have flocked to the area without official permits. It is an influx which has transformed this northeastern region from an agricultural center into a hub of small-scale, unregulated mining. Uncontrolled use of mercury and cyanide has severely polluted local rivers, with mercury levels in the Waekase River reaching 0.05 mg/L—or 50 times the WHO’s safety threshold. Yet despite the government’s move to close the mine in 2015, illegal activity continues.  Ineffective law enforcement has caused ecosystem destruction, public health threats (including neurological disorders and kidney damage) and deadly conflicts between residents.

A window into what we’re reading at the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program 

“Intractable” systemic problems mean carbon offsets fail to cut global heating  (The Guardian) 

A recent review of 25 years of evidence found that carbon credit quality issues stem from deep-seated structural flaws, and not isolated cases of fraud. Researchers point to four major flaws that undermine most carbon offset projects. The worst problems include issuing credits for already-planned projects, impermanent solutions (forests that later burn), incidences of leakage (such as protecting one forest area while pushing logging elsewhere), and double-counting which allows both seller and buyer to claim the same emission reduction.  

A window into what we’re reading at the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program

Chinese Company Accused of Covering Up Extent of Major Toxic Mining Spill in Zambia (Associated Press)

In February, a dam collapse at Chinese-owned Sino-Metals Leach Zambia copper mine released toxic waste into the Kafue River, which provides water for over half of Zambia’s 21 million people. An independent investigation by South African company Drizit found that 1.5 million tons of toxic material were released in the spill, which is 30 times more than Sino-Metals admitted to spilling. When Drizit’s investigation was set to reveal extensive contamination verified through 3,500 samples, Sino-Metals terminated their contract one day before the final report was due.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Kingdom of Norway has played an ever-increasing role in reducing the European Union’s energy dependence on Russia. It will likely continue to do so in the near term, creating a stronger yet more sensitive relationship between the EU and one of its non-member states.

This article is adapted from “Rare Earths and Realpolitik: Kachin Control, Chinese Calculus, and the Future of Mediation in Myanmar,” written by Amara Thiha for the Stimson Center.

As global powers race to secure critical minerals, Myanmar’s rare earths have emerged as both prize and flashpoint. Last week, Reuters reported that the Trump administration has been privately reviewing competing proposals to access Myanmar’s heavy rare earth minerals, including potential engagement with Myanmar’s military junta and direct negotiation with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), an ethnic armed group that now controls key extraction sites. Since the February 2021 military coup, rare earth mining has surged in northern Kachin State near the Chinese border, where the KIA has seized highly valuable rare earth mines and a critical corridor in the global supply chain. What began as a local insurgency has evolved into resource-backed diplomacy, drawing in China, India, and now the United States.