“The effects of climate change can begin in the womb,” said Sarah Barnes, the Project Director of the Maternal Health Initiative at the Wilson Center at a recent event on the impact of climate change on maternal and newborn health outcomes, hosted by the Wilson Center and UNFPA. It is a connection that “[makes] it imperative that climate change and maternal and newborn health leaders work together to tackle climate change and improve maternal and newborn health outcomes, globally.”

As the world’s attention has turned in November 2022 to the UN COP 27 climate change conference, another important global milestone is also drawing attention. Today, November 15, 2022, the global population is predicted to reach 8 billion. By 2050, it will be 9.7 billion.

Climate impacts are growing more frequent and severe as global temperatures rise. Weather-related disasters have seen a five-fold increase over the past half-century. In many cases, these calamities are already testing the adaptation capabilities of vulnerable communities across the world. If emissions follow the trajectory set by current country targets, the chance of temporarily overshooting the 1.5 °C target in the next five years is 48 percent.

This failure would have implications for the global economy and international security. Yet despite the fact that climate change shapes geopolitics, climate risk itself has rarely been featured in international geopolitics and diplomacy.

Which nations are most at risk of catastrophic outcomes due to intensifying ecological threats? The third edition of the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)’s Ecological Threat Report (ETR)—released on October 20, 2022— applies a lens of societal resilience to predict the hotspots most likely to suffer from instability and conflict in the future, and provides projections of ongoing trends to 2050.

In recent years, a growing proportion of migrants at the US southern border have come from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. This surge of migrants from Central America has prompted the U.S. government to seek to better understand and address the root causes of migration from the region. One substantive response came in July 2021, under Executive Order 14010, when the Biden-Harris Administration released what has become known as the Root Causes Strategy. The White House pledged to commit $4 billion over four years on efforts to address drivers of irregular migration from these three countries.