Climate change is being increasingly framed as a security issue—a “threat multiplier” that can amplify the risks of breakdowns in peacefulness. Yet, even extreme climate hazards do not always lead to higher levels of violence.

Oil has played a pivotal role in shaping geopolitics for more than a century. But the rise of electric vehicles and shift toward cleaner fuels means that the world’s dependence on oil could begin to shrink, with both expected and unexpected consequences.

World population continues to grow. The latest UN projections, released this week, indicate that we will add another 2 billion people to the planet by 2050 and 3 billion by the end of the century.  While population growth is ebbing in many countries—and even starting to contract in a few—population growth in some countries remains brisk, if not breakneck. 

It is important to take an inclusive and tangible approach to protecting civilians by protecting the environment during armed conflicts. In recent decades, the link between conflict, the environment and the protection of civilians has become painstakingly clear. From Iraq to Ukraine, Libya to Yemen, dozens of incidents have surfaced where environmental damage resulting from conflict has led to acute or chronic health risks to civilians and their communities, undermining their socioeconomic development.

How do we plan for disasters that have never occurred before? One million species are at risk of extinction in the near future from environmental changes. The frequency of historic tropical storms is increasing. The rapidly melting permafrost in the Arctic is placing unprecedented pressures on northern infrastructure. Given the overwhelming and unpredictable nature of new disaster risks, it is not clear what the appropriate responses should be. Our book, Disaster Security: Using Military and Intelligence Planning for Energy and Environmental Risks, addresses how to assess unique environmental hazards and disaster risks, based on tools used by the U.S. intelligence and military communities. The book draws on lessons learned from developing, applying, and translating scenarios and simulations (or wargames) to plan for future environmental security risks.

In parts of the tropics, exposure to extreme temperature or rainfall in early life is associated with fewer years of schooling in later childhood. This finding comes from my new article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, with coauthor Clark Gray. As climate change leads to increasingly severe heat waves, floods, droughts, and hurricanes, it is important to understand how extreme weather impacts kids’ education in different parts of the world. This will help decisionmakers develop solutions to keep children in school in a world of increasing climate variability.

As Arctic ice melts, we can physically see glaciers retreating. But what we can’t yet see is the exact effect climate change will have on the environment, humans, economies, and national security. Less ice for longer periods each year will likely bring opportunities and related challenges as Arctic and non-Arctic states jockey for position.