Indonesia is at the heart of the next decade of growth in Asia. It also is at the frontier of Chinese industry’s move to develop clean energy markets overseas. The Indonesian government and Chinese investors are aligned on a narrative of decarbonization, but on the ground, coal remains central.

As the world inches closer to the critical 1.5°C warming threshold, the demand for decisive climate leadership has never been more pressing. The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on January 20, 2025 has left a leadership void. The confluence of these events also has raised the question of whether China can do more to fill the finance gap and help Global South countries decarbonize. 

Indonesia’s economy is on a roll. The archipelago nation harbors ambitions for 8% growth a year on its growing strength as an exporter of coal, palm oil, LNG, and stainless steel made from its booming nickel mining industry.

Investments from China are driving this growth—and run the gamut from traditionally dirty industries (mining, steel, and aluminum) to the crown jewels of Chinese clean energy tech: batteries,  electric vehicles (EVs), and solar panel production. In 2023, Xinyi Glass, the world’s largest solar PV panel maker, announced an 11.5 billion USD investment in a quartz sand processing plant in Indonesia. 

In April 2024, Thai government officials traveled to the Chinese provinces of Fujian and Guangdong with a single-point agenda – convincing the leading Chinese electric vehicle (EV) battery makers to invest in their country. Two months later, the global leader in the EV battery industry, China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Limited (CATL), announced an initial investment of over $100 million to set up an assembly plant in collaboration with a local Thai state-owned company.

In his speech on the world’s struggle against poverty at the 19th G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro in November 2024, China’s President Xi Jinping, cited his country’s standout track record of wealth creation, and exulted: “If China can make it, other developing countries can make it too.

China’s promise to guide the Global South on the path toward modernization has included support for green and sustainable development. Yet its pledge also holds a central environmental challenge, especially as the share of global greenhouse gas emissions from emerging markets and developing economies continues to increase. 

When I stepped into the bustling exhibition hall at Enlit Africa in Cape Town in May 2024, I was surprised by the riot of colorful banners featuring Chinese characters. A whopping 40% of the exhibitors at one of Africa’s largest energy and power conferences in Cape Town from China—more than any other country. 

“The size and power output of China’s new offshore wind turbines are remarkable. We are talking about turbines almost 200 meters tall, with blades spanning the length of a football field. The amount of electricity they can generate is staggering.” enthused Cosimo Ries from Trivium China, who is a clear “fan” of offshore wind. And China’s turbines are getting bigger. The Dongfang Electric Corporation just rolled the world’s largest single-capacity offshore turbine (26MW) off the production line in Fujian Province this October.

While standing on the banks of the Mahakam River in Samarinda on the island of Borneo, I watched an unending parade of coal barges sail slowly down the river. I was here in East Kalimantan to give a presentation at the Vulnerable Deltas Workshop—a joint project of the East-West Center and the Wilson Center’s China Environment Forum.