The latest issue of Joint Force Quarterly, a publication by the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, features an article by Jennifer Dabbs Sciubba entitled “The Defense Implications of Demographic Trends.” Sciubba, a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of Maryland and a consultant to the Office of Policy Planning at the Department of Defense, analyzes the ways in which understanding demographic trends can enhance our understanding of potential national security threats. She contends, “Demography is a useful lens for understanding national security because population is intimately linked to resources, and resources are related to both capabilities and conflict.” Her article peers into the future to hypothesize how three key demographic trends—the north-south divide in age structure; international migration; and urbanization—are likely to impact global security conditions.

Touching on issues that have been discussed at events sponsored by the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program, Sciubba first examines the contrast between the young, growing populations of the Global South and the aging, stagnant populations of the Global North. Ninety-nine percent of the additional three billion people projected to be living on Earth by 2050 will be born in developing countries. Meanwhile, developed countries’ populations are largely stable, and in some cases are declining. Europe’s elderly population will rely on a shrinking pool of working-age citizens to fund their health care and pension systems. In order to continue financing these programs, nations will be forced either to permit massively increased immigration (a possibly that Sciubba discounts because of increasingly prominent xenophobicattitudes in Europe) or to cut back on defense spending. This economic crunch could make European participation in humanitarian or combat operations abroad less likely.

Sciubba explains that “population can be a threat rather than an asset” if a state cannot provide educational and economic opportunities for its younger citizens. The Middle East and North Africa will face grave security risks if economic opportunities do not keep pace with population growth, she argues: “As many observers of international trends note, the sad prospects for these [young] individuals can make them susceptible to radical ideologies and even incite them to full-blown violence.” An examination of Iraq’s male youths helps illustrate this problem. The Iraqi military was the main source of employment for young men before its disbandment in 2003, and the disappearance of that crucial economic prospect makes young men more susceptible to insurgent recruitment.

A second key demographic trend is international migration. The causal link between mass migration and conflict can flow both ways, as Sciubba explains: “The ability of mass migration to change a country’s status quo means that it has the potential to instigate conflict, or at least create divisions. This conflict, in turn, drives migration.” The Middle East illustrates the complex relationships between migration and other demographic issues. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, there are approximately two million Iraqi refugees, and about 2,000 Iraqis a day seek refuge in Syria. As a result, there has been a substantial increase in competition for resources between Syrians and Iraqi refugees. Moreover, the virtual end of migration to Israel and the far lower fertility rate among Israeli Jews than Israeli Arabs has set the foundation for an Israel that could be majority-Arab in the future, which would likely fan the flames of conflict there.

Finally, Sciubba discusses urbanization as a key demographic trend that will “likely define the next 30 years.” Population growth will speed up urbanization as working-age young adults seek employment in urban areas. Developing states in the Global South undergoing rapid urbanization face security dangers because of their “proclivity for violence and rebellion [which] can be exacerbated by unmet expectations in overcrowded cities.” Sciubba warns of a potentially catastrophic increase in slums around mega-cities (cities with populations larger than 10 million people, of which there may be 22 by 2015). The squalor in these contemporary urban slums is staggering, she notes: Hygiene and sanitation problems cause 1.6 million deaths annually, which is five times the death toll of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Additionally, rural-urban tensions are likely to be highlighted in coming years. In China, the income of the average urban household is now three times as high as the income of its average rural counterpart, and this income gap is partly responsible for China’s internal unrest.

Sciubba encourages U.S. defense planners to use demographic tools for three main purposes. First, demography can identify security hotspots, such as those outlined above. Second, it can increase awareness of demographic trends in the United States in order to more effectively plan our security policies and strategies. Finally, foreign assistance should take these demographic trends into consideration in order to reduce the risk of related security threats. In only a few pages, Sciubba’s article illuminates several complex demographic trends that will affect future global security.

The soaring global demand for timber, driven in part by China’s economic growth, is making it increasingly tempting for timber companies to ignore the law when seeking new sources of wood. When they do not ask indigenous people’s permission for the use of their land or compensate them for it, illegal loggers jeopardize communities’ livelihoods, threaten traditional customs and values, and, of course, deprive them of the revenue gained from the sale timber.

No one knows this better than Frederick Sagisolo, chief of the Knasaimos people of Seremuk, in the Indonesian province of Papua, who gives a startling account of the plundering of his community’s land by illegal loggers. Despite being head of the Knasaimos tribal council, Sagisolo says he was not contacted by the company that logged his community’s forest. “Instead it did an illegal deal with one individual from our community, and this created many problems for us. But the company was backed by a local military officer, so what could we do?” The logging finally stopped in 2005, when the Indonesian government launched a major initiative against illegal logging, part of which targeted Papua.

Illegal logging can be fueled by problems that face many countries, including a lack of equitable law enforcement in scarcely populated areas and graft involving local officials and foreign companies. As a result of these and other issues, forests are being logged illegally in places as varied as Brazil and Estonia.

Despite President Bush’s initiative against illegal logging and many other efforts around the world, economic incentives to supply cheap and illegal timber seem to be increasing. If more isn’t done to curb illegal logging, we will continue seeing its effects crop up around the world, ranging from ecosystem destruction to increased damage from natural disasters.

Last week, the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) hosted “Agriculture, Land Use, and Climate: Implications for African Development,” a panel discussion on agriculture’s essential current and future role in Africa’s development. As panelist Martin Bwyala of the New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD) noted at the beginning of the discussion, 60 to 70 percent of the population of sub-Saharan Africa depends on agriculture or another form of direct land use for their livelihoods. “Africa’s foundation for sustainable growth lies in enhancing the productivity and sustainable use of its natural resources,” said Bwyala. The panel highlighted the adverse effects of unsustainable land use and climate change on Africans’ livelihoods, and examined the merits of potential solutions.

The panelists emphasized that governments and NGOs are better positioned to aid Africa today than ever before, and that the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) provides an important opportunity to do so. A joint venture by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and NEPAD, with the support of other agencies, CAADP is “a manifestation of African governments’ commitment to address issues of growth in the agricultural sector, rural development and food security,” FAO’s website explains. [w1] The panelists’ overwhelming consensus was that NGOs and governments can and should collaborate to pursue CAADP’s goals, which include: achieving an annual agricultural production growth rate of 6 percent; strengthening domestic and international markets for African agricultural products; spending at least 10 percent of annual public expenditure on agricultural investment; and expanding sustainable management of land and water resources.

Elaborating on CAADP’s goals, Arati Belle of the World Bank explained precisely what is at stake in increasing the sustainability of African agriculture. 485 million Africans are adversely affected by land degradation, which is not surprising, she said, considering that 30 percent of Africa’s GDP and 70 percent of its employment come from the agricultural sector. The goal of the TerrAfrica initiative, launched at the CAADP Partnership Forum, is to “scale up the effectiveness and efficiency of sustainable land management in sub-Saharan Africa.” The need for sustainable land management couldn’t be more urgent: On average, soil and nutrient loss cause a 3 percent annual reduction in African countries’ GDP, said Belle. Citing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Belle warned that unless sustainable and adaptive solutions are implemented, declining crop productivity and increasing variability in precipitation over the course of this century are likely to exacerbate the agricultural sector’s woes.

Continuing this line of reasoning, WWF’s David Reed argued that agencies, governments, and companies involved in Africa “have to change the very base case of their investments, calculations, and thinking, particularly in the agricultural sector.” When thinking about the future of African agriculture, it is crucial to incorporate the impacts of the continent’s massive population growth, said Reed, because the 15 million sub-Saharan Africans who enter the labor market each year are likely to move predominantly into agriculture. It is important that NGOs help African countries take advantage of this influx of labor, Reed said, by promoting agro-forestry best practices, working with agricultural ministries, and encouraging more diverse production systems at the household and community levels.

The final panelist was Angel Elias-Daka of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), who used statistics—as well as anecdotes from his 20 years working in the wetlands of Zambia and Malawi—to shed light land degradation in Africa. Elias-Daka’s field experiences showed him that millions of people depend heavily on wetlands that—due to climate change and unsustainable use—are drying up and losing their biodiversity. He explained the link between COMESA’s work in the region and Africa’s agricultural production as follows: “If you promote trade and investment and people are able to trade their agricultural products, you are also going to promote agricultural production because people know they can trade their agricultural products easily.” Sustainable agricultural development will serve both the economic and the environmental needs of the continent, said Elias-Daka.

Today marked the release of The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change, a report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). This morning’s launch of the report featured commentary by a few of the report’s many high-profile contributors, including John Podesta, who served as former President Clinton’s chief of staff, Leon Fuerth, who served as former Vice President Gore’s national security adviser, and James Woolsey, the former director of the CIA.

The Age of Consequences analyzes the effects three different climate scenarios could have on foreign policy and national security: an expected scenario (based on a 1.3ºC average global temperature increase by 2040); a severe scenario (a 2.6ºC increase by 2040); and a catastrophic scenario (a 5.6ºC increase by 2100). Leaders and policymakers must strive to understand and plan for the potential geopolitical impacts of climate change, said the report’s authors, despite inherent uncertainty regarding the precise severity and timing of those impacts.

Podesta described the expected scenario—which is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) medium-range scenario—as the “best we can hope for, the least we should be prepared for.” This least-dramatic scenario still anticipates a plethora of effects stemming from climate change, including a sharp rise in internal and international migration, the spread of infectious diseases, and growing tensions over the distribution of dwindling natural resources. Podesta emphasized that leaders must prepare for climate impacts to interact with one another and cause cascading geopolitical implications. For better or worse, he said, the United States is already viewed as the world’s first responder to natural disasters, and even under the mildest climate scenario, the American military’s disaster response role can be expected to grow.

While presenting the severe climate scenario, Fuerth reminded the Washington policymaker audience that extreme nonlinear environmental changes will likely generate dramatic institutional changes with far-reaching geopolitical implications—but that the trigger point for these changes is always hard to predict. He also argued that the United States and other wealthy countries have a responsibility to take action to mitigate climate change’s harmful global effects. Inaction by the United States over the next 30 years in the face of severe climate change impacts in the developing world would be akin to “kicking people away from the lifeboats,” he said. The report emphasizes that poorer countries will be disproportionally affected by climate change under all scenarios, in part because they lack the resources to cope with changing conditions. However, even for developed countries, says the report’s Executive Summary, the “collapse and chaos associated with extreme climate change futures would destabilize virtually every aspect of modern life.”

Woolsey emphasized that a catastrophic climate scenario would seriously threaten both ecosystems and infrastructure systems. The debate should not become mired in whether catastrophic climate events may occur in 2050 or 2100, said Woolsey—just as it is useless for a heavy smoker to debate whether he will contract lung cancer at age 49 or 53. As a society, he argued, we are effectively “smoking six packs a day.”

Woolsey stressed that both the “treehugger” interested only in reducing carbon emissions and the “hawk” interested only in security vulnerabilities want many of the same things. For instance, they both wish to move away from a carbon-based economy—the treehugger to mitigate climate change, and the hawk to reduce the nation’s dependency on unstable overseas regimes and its energy infrastructure’s vulnerability to terrorist attack. Woolsey will expand on this coincidence of interests with a future publication featuring an imagined conversation between the ghosts of “treehugger” John Muir and “hawk” General George Patton.

ECSP Director Geoff Dabelko, who attended this morning’s briefing, noted, “The Age of Consequences is an important report that brings together a wide range of experts and succeeds at bolstering the significance of climate change as a serious long-term security concern.” Dabelko believes the next steps are “deriving specific action items for a range of actors from this report” and from similar reports, including the April 2007 CNA Military Advisory Board report, the forthcoming Council on Foreign Relations report by Joshua Busby, and the National Intelligence Council’s National Intelligence Estimate, which is expected in early 2008.

ECSP Director Geoff Dabelko contributed to this report.