Future projections of social disturbance due to climate change and ecological pressures provide little optimism for peace in conflict-affected areas over the coming decades. Yet, can we identify current hotspots and future areas of conflict risk? The fourth Ecological Threat Report (ETR), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace, attempts to do so by taking on the monumental task of evaluating the relationship between ecological threats and peace.

The new report documents a world of growing ecological threats and declining social resilience in the states and territories most vulnerable to a changing climate. And by assessing ecological threats, societal resilience, and levels of peacefulness at the state, territorial, subnational, and city levels, the report also finds a strong correlation between ecological threats and levels of peacefulness.

Worrying Global Trends

In 2023, 1.8 billion people live in countries facing severe ecological threats. This figure is projected to rise to 2.8 billion people by 2050. And of the countries surveyed in the ETR, 66 of them face at least one “severe” ecological threat.

Ecological threats are grouped into one of four domains in the report—water risk, food insecurity, natural disasters, and demographic pressure. Yet increases in ecological threats have a measurable impact on conflict risk. For instance, the report finds that a 25 percent increase in water risks leads to an 18 percent increase in conflict. A similar increase in the occurrence of natural disasters leads to a 21 percent spike in conflict, while there is a 36 percent increase in conflict in relation to food insecurity. These threats also are amplified by growing demographic pressures that stress resources and governance mechanisms. The world’s 40 least peaceful countries already account for half of the world’s population—and they are projected to have an additional 1.3 billion people by 2050. The ETR finds that by that date, 70% of the global population is projected to live in cities. The greatest urban growth will come in countries with low per capita income and high levels of violence, such as Kinshasa, Lagos, or other megacities. In fossil fuel-producing states, these worrying trends may also be intensified by otherwise positive advances in clean energy. As the energy transition gets underway, countries that rely heavily on fossil fuel revenue may face additional economic costs that will add to substantial ecological threats and low societal resilience. For example, nations such as Libya, Iraq, Angola, DRC, and Timor Leste all depend on fossil fuels for more than 25 percent of their GDP. This is revenue these countries will need to replace to avoid long-term economic decline.

Hotspots: Spotlight on the Sub-Sahara and MENA

Ecological destruction and weak social resilience form intertwined challenges that perpetuate instability—creating what the ETR calls ‘hotspots.’ The 2023 ETR identifies 30 hotspot countries (three more than are named in the 2022 edition) where the lowest levels of resilience overlap with the highest levels of ecological threat. Within this grouping, there are two distinct ‘high-risk’ regions—sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Within the category of most “at-risk” countries, 19 of them are in SSA, and five are in MENA. The four most at-risk countries are Ethiopia, Niger, Somalia, and South Sudan. In findings that align with the 2022 ETR, the new report finds that SSA’s Sahel region is home to the highest concentration of hotspot countries. Fully seven out of ten countries in that region (up one from 2022) face at least one catastrophic threat in the context of low social resilience. These countries are Cameroon, Chad, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Nigeria—and it may be no coincidence that many of these nations currently have ongoing armed conflicts. The future looks equally grim. By 2050, an additional 2.2 billion people will live in SSA, and the number of children aged 15 or under there is projected to be larger than the entire population of Europe. Some observers point out that youthful population boasts potential for economic growth if carried out sustainably and comprehensively. But youthful populations can also be a double-edged sword. Populations with youthful age structures are also more likely to be politically unstable, and therefore have low levels of resilience to external shocks, such as climate change. However these trends play out, rapid population growth in “at-risk” nations will dramatically intensify pressure on existing food and water supplies in both regions. As it stands in 2023, 42 countries in the world face severe food insecurity; 35 of those countries are in SSA, where agriculture depends heavily on rain-fed irrigation. Water risk in SSA does not fare much better—25 countries have used 80 percent of their renewable water supply, up from 17 in 2019. And while water risk is highest in SSA, the nations of MENA are projected to mirror its significant water risk level. Indeed, MENA is already feeling the converging impacts of climate change and low social resilience. When looking at global hotspots, it may appear as though climate change has a causal link with conflict. But it does not. The new report underscores that there are often a range of crucial factors that determine a country’s resilience. These factors taken together may play into the link between ecological threats and conflict—including the preexistence of conflict or weak governance—which characterizes many of the countries named as the ETR’s hotspots.

Where to Next?

In the lead-up to COP28, the 2023 ETR provides an opportunity to take stock of the concerted international action that will be required to improve the resilience of the most vulnerable states and territories. The path forward must involve locally led development initiatives, the empowerment of local communities, and the integration of a systems approach to international intervention. As Steve Killelea, Founder & Executive Chairman of IEP, notes: “In a world facing increased ecological degradation, conflict and forced migration, world leaders need to invest in programs that build the capabilities that create positive resilience and drive economic advancement.”