Last September, Secretary-General António Guterres outlined the United Nation’s Our Common Agenda in a speech to the General Assembly. His remarks focused on the future of global cooperation for the next 25 years. It was imperative, he messaged, to recognize that our accelerated interconnectedness, and the formidable challenges we all face, can only be addressed through a reinvigorated multilateralism, with the United Nations at the core of collective member efforts. We must think big, act swiftly, and work effectively, he said, to reshape how we move forward today to achieve the goals of the UN declaration commemorating the 75th anniversary of the United Nations.

Over the past year, the UN has undertaken an intensive global consultative process among its 193 members and with those from a wide array of civil society organizations, thought leaders across the planet, and youth, to develop a new, inclusive plan of action to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. The top line from the report was to use foresight to move away from business-as-usual and put a new emphasis on scenario breakthroughs—those that foster sustainable recovery, promote a healthy planet and people, and build trust and social protection—to offset perpetual crisis breakdown scenarios like deadly pandemics, climate threats, and growing inequalities. In short, the UN seeks a new global deal to deliver public goods while staying mindful of major risks.

Among the specific proposals the Secretary-General announced are several strategic foresight initiatives under the UN’s “Be Prepared Cluster”: (1) a Futures Lab; (2) a Declaration on Future Generations; (3) a United Nations Special Envoy to ensure that policy and budget decisions closely reflect their impact on future generations; (4) a regularly issued Strategic Foresight and Global Risk Report; and, (5) a Summit on the Future in 2023. Readers of New Security Beat who follow the recent uptick in foresight since COVID-19 arrived will find these UN proposals a welcome addition to futures thinking, especially in light of the risk that foresight might not have any real staying power once the pandemic shows signs of ebbing.

At a recent virtual meeting of over 100 global futurists, hosted by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s Development Assistance Committee (OECD/DAC) Friends of Foresight, initial plans for each UN initiative were unveiled, but all remain a work in progress.

• UN Futures Lab: A to-be-built entity to ensure long-term thinking, based at UN Headquarters, but with “spokes” across the globe. The Lab will build out from the pioneering work of UN Global Pulse (and its network of innovation hubs) to safely and responsibly harvest big data and AI. The goal is to better understand changes in human well-being and use “real-time feedback” to get a clearer picture of policies and trends like urbanization, digitalization, and trade expansion. For example, USAID partnered with UN Global Pulse, along with UN Development Program and UN-Habitat, to analyze real-time data from remote sensors and cell phones to uncover novel patterns to help Asian cities deal with traffic congestion, access clean water, prepare for natural disasters, and remedy intermittent electricity shortfalls. Under the Futures Lab, the UN will conduct impact assessments of its major policies and programs. The Lab will also convene foresight and planning experts across the UN System and among its partners to strengthen strategic foresight.

• Declaration on Future Generations: Recent troubling trends show that young people are deeply concerned about the world they will inherit and want to be more engaged in decision-making at all levels. But trust in government is waning. Building trust must go hand-in-hand with countering mistrust, lies, and deception. The Declaration is expected to spell out the aspirational roles of youth, governments, institutions, and civil society for long term, multi-generational, and intergenerational thinking. It’s also likely to tackle concerns about intergenerational fairness and equity as well as spell out specific ways to empower today’s youth, and the generations to follow, on how to have a greater say in designing their destinies. Recognizing the need to better engage youth in full-scale decision-making and accelerate foresight uptake, USAID recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the School of International Futures’ Next Generation Foresight Practitioner Network.

• UN Special Envoy on Future Generations: While some countries, like Finland and Wales, have already established “futures committees” to advise governments on the consequences of today’s policies on future generations, other countries have not yet done so. The UN Special Envoy, whose role has yet to be fully fleshed out, could explore several options to encourage other country members to establish similar committees and further encourage the practice of foresight in multilaterals in close coordination with the UN Futures Lab.

• Strategic Foresight and Global Risk Report: Still in the early stages of development, this report (to be issued every five years) will capture and monitor catastrophic risks to minimize threats to current and future generations. Risks will be identified based on expert knowledge and sources from within and outside the UN. The planned Futures Lab is likely to play a coordinating role. Other mechanisms, such as the annual IMF Early Warning Exercise or EWE, will likely be deployed to generate the risk report. The EWE assesses low-probability but high-impact global economic risks and suggests policies needed to address them.

• Summit of the Future 2023: A global meeting is now in the early planning stages by the UN. It will be hosted next year to “forge a consensus” of what the future (or futures) might look like and the importance of taking steps now, as a global community, to secure the best-desired outcomes for the common global good. The Summit of the Future is likely to be preceded by several pre-summit consultations among members and others to introduce fresh ideas to create a more inclusive, networked, and effective system of global governance to respond better to future global risks. In short, to reinvent itself into ”United Nations 2.0” with an increased focus on data, digital, innovation, behavioral science and foresight.

A number of other future-forward UN initiatives were also touched upon, but still under discussion, including a Global Emergency Platform, re-launch of the Secretary’s Scientific Advisory Board, and re-purposing of the UN Trustee Council.

Bottom Line

The COVID-19 pandemic helped catalyze renewed interest in foresight, and scenario planning in particular. A second impetus for a renewed emphasis in foresight is the need for climate change scenarios to help scientists and others better understand and prepare for the devastating impacts of a warming globe. Now, with the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine as a global wakeup call, foresight practitioners are already fast at work developing scenarios to respond to the worst-case probable outcomes.

A foresight plan of action, like that proposed by the UN Secretary-General in “Our Common Agenda” and unveiled at the OECD-DAC Friends of Foresight meeting, is an appreciated and valued next step to look over-the-horizon to examine, expand, and uncover the full range of scenarios and plausible options that must be taken into account now, not later, to have a real, sustainable, and positive impact for the global common good. Linking these foresight initiatives to UN policy and planning will be a vital addition.