“The success or failure of cities will shape opportunities and quality of life for a growing share of the world’s population,” says the National Intelligence Council in its recent analysis of security risks the world will likely face by 2040. This is especially true for densely populated coastal and low-lying areas. The western United States continues to suffer extreme drought and fires after breaking heat records this summer. China has experienced significant flooding, highlighting its ill-preparedness for dealing with the effects of climate change. Parts of Brazil are suffering drought while others received unexpected snow and ice. Climate-related disasters have nearly doubled over the last two decades, causing over one million fatalities, affecting nearly 4 billion people, and costing almost 3 trillion dollars. At the heart of these impacts are cities. 

The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence says, “booming cities of middle-income East, Southeast, and South Asia as well as the low-income urban areas of eastern and southern Africa are already exposed to the highest number of disasters per capita.” The climate crisis is reshaping our world and cities are at the forefront—especially in those fragile states whose governments already struggle to meet the needs of their citizens. Further complicating matters, while cities experience an outsized impact from global climate change, they also produce the majority of climate-change related emissions.

Even as a majority of Americans view government action on climate as insufficient, pre-election surveys regularly showed that citizens ranked environmental concerns relatively low. Could this be because too little of the climate change discussion touches on challenges specific to the urban environments where most of humanity lives? In other words, has the focus in the media on polar bears and other issues perceived as “distant” and remote made climate change feel less relevant and therefore less urgent? Could recent climate impacts on major urban centers, such as those discussed above, change the discourse? New research from Yale University seems to show the impacts will. 

Vulnerability of cities to climate change

Over half of the world’s population lives in cities, and urban populations are expected to increase to 6 billion people by 2045. For the 216 million people who could be internally displaced by climate change, urban areas will be the ultimate destination for most. In response, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has recognized urbanization as a ‘megatrend’ and the UN Chief Executives Board for Coordination called upon the UN to “facilitate cooperation among agencies in order to advance… sustainable urbanization.”

With up to one-third of food crops likely to be disrupted by climate change, urban food supplies will be impacted. People in low-income neighborhoods of cities are likely to live in “food deserts” and have lower access to nutritional knowledge, leading to them to purchase and consume less nutritious foods. Already, urban hunger—which persists even in some minority communities in the United States, a country with significant resources—spiked during Covid-19. 

According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “Relatively poor countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will account for almost all global population growth during the next two decades and will be rapidly urbanizing at the same time.” Transitioning to clean energy systems and investing in energy efficiency will be key in these economies where 800 million people are anticipated to need modern energy services by 2050, primarily in cities. Reducing the reliance on polluting and inefficient technologies is also needed to mitigate climate change and improve air quality in cities.

Responding to heat, drought, and floods: providing safe, consistent water, food, and energy 

Cities can and must help residents and peri-urban areas manage climate risks and better prepare for natural disasters. The UN Security Council and General Assembly are increasingly paying attention to climate risks and migration-related impacts on cities. Local governments, businesses, and cities are also ramping up efforts—or at least commitments—especially in the context of planning economic recovery following Covid-19. 

Cities are increasingly aware of their vulnerability and several are taking steps to address it. Phoenix, Arizona’s 2021-22 budget included almost $3 million for addressing climate change, established an Office of Heat Response and Mitigation, and pledged to work toward doubling urban shade trees by 2030. Tampa, Florida, recently released a resilience roadmap with climate change adaptation measures which includes promoting “climate-ready infrastructure.” Several other cities, including Amsterdam and London, have launched climate adaptation plans. With the number of world cities exposed to extreme heat nearly doubling, Athens, Greece recently appointed its first ever Chief Heat Officer.

There are also positive opportunities for cities to better meet citizen needs in the face of climate change. Migration to cities and the growing demand for higher value-added foods has helped create more diverse and higher paying off-farm jobs for urban and peri-urban citizens and strengthen rural-urban linkages. 

Urban agriculture can serve as a source of healthy food. In industrialized nations, hydroponics can offer an attractive and potentially profitable foundation. Hydroponics can also serve in some less developed settings but demands a reliable energy supply, among other resources. Lower-tech options include backyard and rooftop gardens. Community gardens can improve access to healthy food, increasing nutritional outcomes and physical activity opportunities. Gardens and other green spaces in cities also have the advantage of mitigating climate change impacts as they can help to reduce temperatures in cities. Tree-rich cities are also more conducive to human physical and mental wellbeing and are more welcoming to other species. 

The urgency of acting now

Just ahead of the G7 meeting in June, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said that this year is “the make-it-or-break-it year” for climate action. With leaders unable to agree on how to end the use of coal and with the UN warning that a lack of progress puts us on a “catastrophic pathway,” it is clear that both adaptation (actions to adjust to our new reality) and mitigation (actions to limit the impacts of changes that cannot be avoided or tolerated) will be required. In the short term, scaling up support for cities to better plan for and integrate climate-induced migrants and to enact disaster reduction policies will be necessary. President Biden’s Executive Order on Rebuilding and Enhancing Programs to Resettle Refugees and Planning for the Impact of Climate Change on Migration is part of the solution, providing a forum to explore options for protection and resettlement of individuals displaced directly or indirectly from climate change, and to explore the use of foreign assistance to bolster climate resilience. Responding to the climate crisis also provides new opportunities for ecosystem protection, economic growth, and technological innovation in cities. Bold global climate action could lead to an estimated $26 trillion in economic gains in twelve years. Investments such as green infrastructure, early warning systems, and improved water management have a benefit-cost return as high as 10 to 1. Recent work by the World Bank suggests that addressing climate change today could reduce the number of internally displaced people by 80 percent. 

While nations have been failing to expeditiously act, cities around the world are propelling systematic change. With ample revenue but large carbon footprints, many cities are aiming to be at the forefront of efforts to reach net zero emissions within decades. 

A key to the solution is recognizing that cities are essential to development, testing, and implementation of green technology. City governments around the world can and should support climate-smart investment planning and improve access to climate finance to bridge the gap between donor assistance, and national-level goals, and local needs for climate-related upgrades. This should include partnering directly with the most vulnerable and marginalized local urban communities, where pollution, climate change, and economic hardship often converge.