An international food crisis is currently unfolding on a scale not seen since World War II. More than 20 million people in Somalia, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Yemen are in danger of famine. UN Under-Secretary-General and Emergency Relief Coordinator Stephen O’Brien said in March, “We are facing the largest humanitarian crisis since the creation of the United Nations.”

Though each of the cases are different, they have one thing in common: violent conflict. Conflict and its effects, like displacement and disruption of trade, can impact all four dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. Here, we overview the main drivers of famine conditions in all four countries.

Somalia

Somalia today faces many of the same challenges as it did during its last major food crisis, six years ago. The 2011 famine in Somalia was the result of a confluence of several factors, including drought, a global spike in food prices, production failures, and on-going war against the militant group Al Shabaab.

The famine had a devastating effect on the population, killing an estimated 258,000 people and forcing internal displacement and migration to Kenya and Ethiopia. Alex de Sherbinin of Columbia University said at the Wilson Center in January that the international community saw the famine coming, thanks to early warning systems, but responded too late and too slowly.

Today, international food prices are not as big a factor and the state appears stronger after successful presidential elections in January, but the country still suffers from many of the same problems and again faces drought.

Nearly 2.9 million Somalis are expected to experience crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity in the coming months, with the most vulnerable located in areas controlled by Al Shabaab and regions most affected by the 2011 and 1992 famines. The most drought-affected regions are in the north and the southern “sorghum belt.” While famine has not been officially declared yet, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network classifies much of the country as in “crisis” or “emergency” levels of food stress, and all of the country at least “stressed.”

A severe El Niño cycle caused widespread crop and cattle losses for East and Southern Africa in 2015 and 2016. IRIN notes that rising food prices caused by livestock deaths and regional crop failures are contributing to current conditions. In some parts of the country, the purchasing power of typical households has decreased by 20 percent, and in the most affected southern areas, a staggering 60 percent.

Nigeria

Nearly 50,000 people in northeastern Nigeria are at risk of famine this year, while 5.2 million people across the country are likely to experience food insecurity, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Climate change and the overuse of water resources have dramatically impacted the Lake Chad basin area, on the border with Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, leaving the Nigerian states of Borno and Yobe vulnerable to famine – the same area where the extremist militant group Boko Haram has been operating since 2009.

The militant group’s attacks on farmers have made it challenging to plant crops, displaced millions, and disrupted humanitarian convoys trying to distribute aid. The New York Times’ “Road to Nowhere” feature explored one of the many haphazard camps that have sprung up in the desert to accommodate displaced communities.

In other areas, Boko Haram has blocked aid agencies from entering, stranding large populations and making it difficult to assess conditions. Famine is suspected to have occurred last year in Bama and Banki towns, for example, but was never confirmed.

Yemen

Political conflict has plagued Yemen since long-time strongman Ali Abdullah Saleh was forced out of office in 2012, during the Arab Spring, and transferred power to his vice president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. A power struggle between Hadi and a Saudi-led coalition on one side, and Houthi groups allegedly backed by Iran on the other, has engulfed an already fragile country.

After almost three years of conflict, an estimated 18.8 million people, or two thirds of the population, need humanitarian assistance and more than 7 million people do not know where they will get their next meal. Three-quarters of residents in and around the city of Taiz, where fighting has been particularly intense, face food shortages, according to The Washington Post.

A blockade in particular is pinching supplies. Thanks in part to its poor water resources and rapidly growing population, almost 90 percent of Yemen’s food is imported, with the majority passing through the Houthi-controlled port of Hodeida. Saudi ships, trying to block arms traffic, have stopped nearly all traffic into and out of the port. If the port and city fall, aid agencies fear food shipments may be halted altogether, leading to widespread famine.

South Sudan

The world’s newest country has been experiencing ethnic strife since it gained independence in 2011. Civil war began in December 2013 when a power struggle between President Salva Kiir and former Vice President Riek Machar broke out of the political sphere and led to violence between the Dinka and Nuer ethnic groups. More than 50,000 people have been killed since 2013, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

The ongoing violence has caused thousands of people to leave their homes, and aid workers are being blocked from bringing in food to certain areas, according to The Washington Post. Coverage by The New York Times dives into how food shortages have forced thousands of people into camps and the bush to survive off “wild plants and filthy water.” The UN declared a full-fledged famine in two counties in February. Nearly 5 million people face severe food insecurity across the country of 11 million, and more than 3.4 million are displaced because of conflict.

Competition for natural resources also drives conflict. Ninety-eight percent of the county’s revenue comes from oil production, and the Nuer and Dinka groups have long competed over water and land for livestock.

What’s Next?

As of the end of March, the United Nations had received only $423 million of its ask of $4.4 billion to respond to the four crises, less than 10 percent of the total.

Wilson Center Fellow Joseph Cassidy notes that humanitarian appeals have been chronically underfunded in recent years, in part due to rising demand for crises like Syria. But traditional donor countries in Western Europe and North America have also been distracted by their own migration challenges, as popular support for asylum wanes and political leaders call for reduced foreign spending. 

“The challenge for humanitarians,” Cassidy said, “is to make the argument that humanitarian funding ultimately protects donor interests by, for example, reducing the potential for destabilizing mass migrations, metastasizing violence, global epidemics, and radicalization that can lead to terrorism.”

In the meantime, a population nearly equivalent to that of Australia faces imminent famine. “Without collective and coordinated global efforts,” said the United Nations’ O’Brien, “people [in these countries] will simply starve to death.”