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All the Population Future We Cannot See
›In the quarter century the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program has been pondering the issues for which it’s named, the world’s demographic future has been wobbling. A key concern of analysts: How many people will farmers need to feed in 2050? Mainstream projections have teetered between 8.9 billion and 9.8 billion, amounting to an increase of between 13 and 21 percent over today’s 7.7 billion. This significant variation in projections is rarely acknowledged by prognosticators. Many simply round up today’s latest guess and state confidently that there will be 10 billion people in 2050—though just a few years ago, the number most confidently stated was 9 billion.
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Protecting the Protectors: Environmental Defenders and the Future of Environmental Peacebuilding
›Early scholarship on environmental peacemaking recognized the important role that local civil-society can play in promoting regional cooperation while, at the same time, pressuring governments to protect the environment. For example, in the late 1980s/early 1990s, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), such as the Union for Defense of the Aral Sea and Amu Darya in Uzbekistan and the Dashowuz Ecological Club in Turkmenistan, were at the forefront of the fight to restore the Aral Sea and protect the region’s biodiversity.
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Top 5 of November 2019
›In November, New Security Beat launched a new series, “Uncharted Territory: The Next 25 Years of Environment, Health, and Security.” In the most read post of November, Kayly Ober’s contribution to the special series offers creative policy solutions to the climate migration debate.
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Foresight for Action | Weathering the Storm: Improving Predictive Capabilities for Extreme Weather and Water Events in the Caribbean
›For two weeks, Hurricane Dorian, one of the strongest hurricanes to make landfall in the Pacific, decimated large swaths of the Caribbean displacing 70,000 people and killing at least 50. Natural disasters like Hurricane Dorian in the Caribbean have only been worsening over the last decade, a trend often attributed to warming oceanic and atmospheric temperatures.
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CODE BLUE: Addressing NCDs in Maternal Health Starts with Increasing Access and Reducing Disparity
›We’ve got a crisis impacting our mothers and a crisis impacting our babies, said Dr. Lisa Waddell, Senior Vice President of Maternal Child Health and NICU Innovation and Impact Deputy Medical Director at the March of Dimes, at a recent Wilson Center event launching the Maternal Health Initiative’s CODE BLUE series, developed in partnership with EMD Serono, a business of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany. She was referring to non-communicable diseases (NCDs), which impact maternal health in the United States and globally. NCDs kill 18 million women of reproductive age each year, accounting for two in every three deaths among women.
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Safe from the Start: Addressing Gender-Based Violence in Times of Conflict and Crises
›“As a leader in providing global humanitarian aid, the United States must be a leader in protecting all aid recipients,” said Congresswoman Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA-6) at a recent event on Capitol Hill about gender-based violence in humanitarian settings. A violation against human rights, gender-based violence (GBV) is deeply rooted in gender inequality. It’s a global phenomenon that involves sexual, physical, and/or psychological violence, including child marriage, female genital mutilation, and other harmful practices.
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By, for, and of the People: How Citizen Science Enhances Water Security
›In the Peruvian Andes, where cropland is irrigated and water availability is variable at best, knowledge of highland hydrology is crucial to survival. However, until recently, the locals did not have adequate information to be able to use their water efficiently. So the community worked with a nonprofit to develop a non-specialist/non-researcher run data-gathering project to monitor the water in the region to optimize its use: in short, they developed a citizen science project.
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Which Demographic “End of History”?
›First published 30 years ago in the National Interest, Francis Fukuyama’s landmark essay, “The End of History?,” argued that, with the fall of fascism and communism, no serious blueprint for modern-state development lay open, save for those paths that would ultimately embrace both political and economic liberalism. Over the past two decades, movement toward this ideal end-state has trickled to a halt. Instead, the political elites of Eurasia’s regional powers—Russia, Turkey, Iran, and China—have crafted stable illiberal regimes that borrow whatever they need from free-market economics, electoral politics, nationalism, and religion. Their ascent has produced a form of “non-endpoint stability”—two mutually antagonistic camps: one composed of liberal democracies, the other a mix of illiberal hybrids. As long as these camps remain stable, the international system falls far short of Fukuyama’s theoretical end of history.