Almost three decades ago, at a conference at the Woods Hole Institute, oceanographer John Martin said with “a half a tanker of iron…I will give you the next ice age.”

Water scarcity has contributed to an “arc of instability” characterized by conflict and displacement that stretches from West Africa to the Middle East, said a panel of experts at the Wilson Center on March 1. Two authors from an upcoming compilation of case studies on water security and violent conflict by World Wildlife Fund gave overviews of challenges in Nigeria and Iran and recommendations for U.S. engagement.

VILAMBUR, India – The mammoth coal-fired Cheyyur electrical station was first imagined by bankers at India’s Power Finance Corporation and senior engineers across town at the Central Electric Authority. That was in 2005, when the country was rich in fossil fuel resources and desperate for electric power. Though India mined more coal than almost any other country, endemic blackouts and brownouts enfeebled its economic prospects.

Over the last 60 years, more than two-thirds of the world’s remaining biodiversity hotspots have experienced armed conflict. The effects have been myriad, from destruction as a result of military tactics to indirect socioeconomic and political changes, like human migration and displacement. This so-called “war on wildlife” has important implications for conservation and peacebuilding efforts, according to a recent literature review published in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment.

In a brief published by the Stanley Foundation, Cullen Hendrix explores how “the degradation and overexploitation of renewable sources…and unequal access to these resources” can make societies more or less susceptible to experiencing mass atrocities. Hendrix proposes that “demographic-environmental stress” is most likely to contribute to mass atrocities (genocide, war crimes, or crimes against humanity) in agricultural societies that have a high level of group identity-driven politics and economics, exclusionary political institutions, political actors that deprive certain groups, or when governments have low legitimacy.

Water security remains an ambiguous concept with an uncharted path to achievement. Water is an essential resource to our survival and livelihoods, yet most countries lack a clear strategy for how to protect and manage it. With increasing rates and sources of consumption, a growing population, and shifting frequency and intensity of rates of precipitation, continued inaction will have serious impacts on our national security, economy, and environment.

The waters of Lake Chad sustain 70 million people in four countries. Beginning in the 1970s, the 25,000-square-kilometer lake began shrinking due to excessive drawdown for agriculture and mining. Now only 10 percent remains. The dwindling water supply devastated food production and fostered massive economic and political tensions. Many experts credit the worsening conditions for contributing to the rise of Boko Haram, an extremist group that has killed 20,000 people and forced 2.3 million more to flee.