Showing posts from category Arctic.
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Melting Arctic Poses Multiple Security Threats, Say Canadian Experts
›December 28, 2007 // By Rachel Weisshaar“We are indeed at a cooperation versus conflict nexus,” said Rob Huebert, associate director of the University of Calgary’s Centre for Military and Strategic Studies, at a December 11 meeting sponsored by the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute. Huebert was joined by fellow Arctic expert Michael Byers, the academic director of the University of British Columbia’s Liu Institute for Global Issues, in a discussion of the potential security threats introduced by a rapidly melting Arctic.
According to Byers, approximately 1.2 million square kilometers of sea ice—an area far larger than the state of California—melted between September 2006 and September 2007. If this trend continues, the Arctic could experience seasonal ice-free periods in 10 or 15 years. The melting ice is opening up previously inaccessible shipping routes, and Byers argued, “It’s not a question of if, but when, the ships come.” Increased shipping activity could attract people trying to smuggle nuclear weapons or materials, illegal drugs, terrorists, or illegal immigrants into North America.
The melting ice is not only opening up shipping routes, but is also uncovering vast oil and gas reserves. The Arctic marine ecosystem is extremely fragile, and an oil spill like the Exxon-Valdez would have “catastrophic environmental consequences,” said Byers. -
Russia in the Arctic: A Race for Oil or Patriotism?
›November 8, 2007 // By Thomas RenardObservers typically view the race to lay claim to territory in the Arctic as a competition for oil and gas resources or an exercise in national sovereignty. But for Russia, there could be a third reason to try to claim the North: identity. “The parallel with Stalin’s triumphalist propaganda campaign of ‘conquering the North’ launched in 1936-1939 on the background of severe internal repressions is too obvious to miss,” argues Pavel Baev, research professor at the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), in “Russia’s Race for the Arctic and the New Geopolitics of the North Pole,” an occasional paper published by the Jamestown Foundation. According to Baev, Russia’s entire Arctic campaign—including the planting of the titanium flag on the sea floor and the flights of Tu-95MS strategic bombers over Arctic waters—is intended to bolster Russians’ nationalism.
Baev believes that oil alone cannot explain Russia’s actions in the Arctic. First, no one is sure just how extensive the Arctic’s oil reserves really are, because minimal exploratory drilling has been carried out. Moreover, Russia currently lacks the technology to develop offshore oil and gas fields in harsh conditions, and does not seem interested in developing that technology. “The underlying proposition for claiming exclusive economic rights for the seabed beyond the 80°N latitude is that 30-50 years from now hydrocarbons would still be in such high demand that production at enormous costs will be economically efficient. What follows logically is that Russia is not particularly worried about the climate change and has few thoughts about alternative energy sources,” writes Baev.
According to Baev, oil is a motivation for Moscow, but only in the long term. Oil reserves, combined with other strategic interests—such as maritime shipping routes, which have historically been a significant concern for Russia—pushed the Kremlin to take steps to assert Russia’s claims to significant Arctic territories. Three factors contributed to Russia’s Arctic strategy: a growing awareness of climate change; the goal of deterring other nations from asserting their claims to the territory; and a desire to strengthen Russians’ national pride. “Putin’s spin-masters have stumbled upon rather than invented the Arctic theme,” concludes Baev. -
Arctic Update
›October 25, 2007 // By Rachel WeisshaarThe U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently issued a “report card” for the Arctic, which warned that the polar ice cap is melting rapidly, and that air temperatures continue to rise. A brief sampling of stories covering the implications of this warming, melting Arctic.
“Cold Rush: The Coming Fight for the Melting North,” in the September 2007 issue of Harper’s magazine (subscription required), offers a behind-the-scenes look at Canada’s uncharacteristically forceful assertions of its ownership of Arctic territory—particularly the storied Northwest Passage.
Canada is not the only country trying to gain an advantage in the North. The U.S. Coast Guard plans to establish a new base in Barrow, Alaska as early as the spring of 2008, reports the Associated Press. The base would monitor ship traffic in the Arctic waters, which is expected to increase as more areas remain free of ice for longer periods of time.
The Arctic’s rapidly changing climate is threatening cultural resources, as well as natural ones. Glenn Morris, a fellow of the Royal Geographic Society, is leading a four-person team on a 3,000-mile expedition by kayak and dogsled to record the Inuit’s impressions of their rapidly changing environment. Morris wrote about the first stage of the expedition for the BBC; in the second and final stage, to be carried out in the summer of 2008, the team will kayak the Northwest Passage. -
A New Cold War in the Arctic?
›August 23, 2007 // By Rachel WeisshaarAn environmental security threat is heating up in one of the world’s coldest places: the North Pole. Climate change is causing the polar ice caps to melt, making the Arctic’s vast oil and natural gas reserves more easily accessible. But because this area was previously nearly impossible to access, the rights to the territory are in dispute, with the United States, Canada, Russia, Norway, and Denmark all laying claim to it.
Russia recently initiated a flood of diplomatic posturing when it sent two mini-submarines to plant a rust-proof, titanium Russian flag on the Arctic seabed, four kilometers beneath the polar ice cap. Leaders of the other four countries with claims to the area responded with skepticism and dismay. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper also reiterated Canada’s claim to the fabled Northwest Passage (it previously claimed ownership in 1973)—which the U.S. officially views as an international strait. Ownership of the Arctic was also on the agenda at a previously-scheduled meeting of Bush, Harper, and Mexican President Felipe Calderon earlier this week in Quebec.
One reason why this controversy is so fascinating—and has been getting so much attention in the media—is that it is of interest to so many different communities. There are industry players and observers who want to know how these new fuel reserves will affect businesses; students of national security and politics who are intrigued by the delicate symbolic and rhetorical dance that is unfolding; scientists who are curious as to what the five countries’ new geological exploratory missions will discover; and environmentalists who are concerned about the increased climate change (and localized environmental degradation) that extracting and burning the fossil fuels under the Arctic would likely produce.
Technically, the Arctic ownership debate will be resolved by the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, a group of lawyers and geologists who will rely on the 1994 Law of the Sea Treaty to help determine the validity of ownership claims. But because the stakes are so high—in terms of natural resources as well as political prestige—it seems unlikely that compromise and caution will prevail unless the commission sends a strong message that it will not tolerate Cold War-style intimidation or theatrics.