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High Food Prices an Unlikely Cause for the Start of the Arab Spring
›April 7, 2014 // By Richard CincottaJust months after popular uprisings toppled Tunisia and Egypt’s authoritarian regimes, a trio of complex-system researchers published a brief article linking these demonstrations with high levels of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s international Food Price Index. Marco Lagi, Karla Bertrand, and Yaneer Bar-Yam’s model, which predicts outbreaks of deadly social conflict when the index tops 210, has since become a popular explanation wielded by many for bouts of popular unrest, including the Arab Spring and overthrow of Ukraine’s government. But were food prices really an underlying “hidden” cause for the start of a wave of instability that is still being felt today?
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Assessing Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation: IPCC Working Group II in Their Own Words
›The latest report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) brings new evidence to bear on the real and potential impacts of climate change, emphasizing the need to manage risks and build resilience. In a dramatic, slickly produced video accompanying the much-anticipated Working Group II contribution to the report, released on March 30, several of the working group’s dozens of authors discuss key issues addressed in their section, which covers “impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability.”
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Kathleen Mogelgaard: Four Steps to Better Link Climate Adaptation and Reproductive Health Strategies
›Climate change vulnerability is closely tied to population dynamics, says Kathleen Mogelgaard in this week’s podcast. “We know that population size, composition and spatial distribution around the world is constantly changing, and that these changes do have implications for climate change exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity – the three elements of vulnerability.”
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In Quest to Understand Climate Change and Conflict, Avoid Simplification
›As the war in Syria shows no signs of letting up, a recent article in Middle Eastern Studies put forward the hypothesis that the brutal conflict was triggered by government mismanagement of the country’s recent drought, which lasted from 2006 to 2010. It’s a story we’ve heard before.
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Bouncing Forward: Why “Resilience” Is Important and Needs a Definition
›As policymakers respond to the threat of climate and environmental change, the concept of resilience has found itself at the center of discussion. Few scientists and policymakers, however, can come to a consensus on how to define, evaluate, and build resilience.
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State of the Oceans 2013: Acidification, Overfishing Major Threats to Ecosystem Health
›“The rate of speed of change in the global oceans are greater than [that] of any time in known history,” said Karen Sack of the Pew Charitable Trusts, speaking at the Wilson Center on November 13. She was joined by Paul Schopf, professor of oceanography and associate dean for research and computing at George Mason University, and Libby Jewett, director of the Ocean Acidification Programs at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), to discuss the latest State of the Ocean Report. [Video Below]
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A. Tianna Scozzaro, Population Action International
Population Dynamics Are Crucial to Sustainable Development – So Why Isn’t Anyone Talking About Them?
›January 29, 2014 // By Wilson Center StaffThe original version of this article, by A. Tianna Scozzaro, appeared on Population Action International’s All Access blog.
For the past 11 months, a group of United Nations member states has been holding meetings seeking input on future goals for sustainable development once the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) expire in 2015. Led by co-chair ambassadors from Hungary and Kenya, this Open Working Group of 69 countries has delved into topics ranging from governance to health and everything in between.
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New Architecture for a New World? Making the Millennium Development Goals Sustainable
›Next year, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), adopted by the United Nations after the Millennium Declaration, are set to expire. As they wind down, the global development community is taking stock. While there have been great strides toward accomplishing many of the goals set forth in 2000, there has been little headway in ensuring environmental sustainability, said Melinda Kimble, senior vice president of the United Nations Foundation. Which raises the question: What should change for the next set of global development goals, which are supposed to be even more environmentally focused – the “Sustainable Development Goals?”
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