The looming 27^th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP) of the UNFCCC in Egypt in November 2022 brings with it a moment of truth for many nations. They must intensify decarbonization efforts to meet their share of global commitments agreed upon at the Paris COP. Yet, the already significant challenges also have intensified. Disruptions of oil and gas flows caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are slowing a global green energy transition—at least in the short-term. The depth of the crisis means countries are even scrambling to keep coal-powered plants working.

Supply chain considerations in today’s globalized economy have expanded beyond minimizing costs. As Duncan Wood, Vice President for Strategy and New Initiatives and Senior Advisor to the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center, noted at a recent panel hosted by the Environmental Change & Security Program as part of the Transatlantic Climate Bridge conference, issues ranging from environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) to national security and geopolitics, have transformed critical mineral supply chains into something that is now “inherently political.”

Is a “green resource curse” on its way? Kimberly Thompson, a Senior Advisor for Natural Resources and Conflict and the Industry Lead for Mining at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), says that the current status quo in the green mining industry risks “inadvertently creating the conditions” for it to happen.

Few people can name from memory the materials required for wind turbines, photovoltaic panel semiconductors, and electric car batteries. The list is too long, but among the more recognizable minerals used in renewable production are aluminum, lithium, cobalt, iron, copper, lead, and nickel.

On March 8, 2022, the price of nickel doubled overnight. Fueled by the war in Ukraine, fears of supply disruptions briefly drove the cost of nickel contracts over $100,000-a-ton. The London Metal Exchange, the main global market for industrial metals, suspended trading for a week, canceling billions of dollars worth of trades.

In response to the growing challenges created by climate change, consumers across the globe are demanding more environmentally friendly products. This demand is particularly evident when examining the automotive market. In 2021, global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) more than doubled from the year before, rising from 3 million to 6.6 million vehicles according to the International Energy Agency. This boom has created a need for lithium, a key component of the rechargeable batteries used to power these vehicles. Referred to as ‘white gold,’ countries with lithium reserves are racing to increase extraction and export deposits for battery production. As automobile and battery manufacturers work to meet demand and avoid supply chain shocks, many are looking toward the untapped potential of Mexican lithium.

The transition to a carbon-neutral economy will bring profound shifts to diverse economic sectors. This transformation will generate increasing demands for land for renewable energy generation and the minerals needed for clean energy technologies.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is sending shockwaves through global systems for natural resources like food, oil and natural gas, and critical minerals. But a recent Wilson Center event assessing the fallout of the conflict also looked to the deeper implications and lessons from the crisis.