This summer, United Nations agencies published three reports that offer a sobering assessment of the current state of international security and development, focusing on multidimensional poverty, hunger, and forcible displacement. As some countries succeed in steadily improving the living conditions of their most vulnerable populations, others have struggled to overcome sustained episodes of political instability and violent conflict. Together, the reports affirm the urgency with which the international community must reorient its policy priorities and take action to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.

The 1951 Refugee Convention spells out refugee rights, including the right to freedom of movement. Yet 68 years later, 15.9 million people are trapped in prolonged exile, living as refugees for anywhere from 5 to 47 years and counting. The unprecedented duration of protracted refugee situations (PRS) and the increasing scale of forced migration demand a comprehensive response beyond humanitarian assistance.  

One factor frequently underestimated in the global migration discussion is climate change, said James Hollifield, a Wilson Center Global Fellow, in a recent episode of Wilson NOW. Resulting in both internal displacement and international forced migration, climate-induced migration is set to become a complex problem. So far, there are no international agreements protecting those who may be displaced by climate-induced hardships. Hollifield anticipates regions in Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia will be significantly impacted by these dynamics and notes that Central America is already dealing with challenges of climate-induced displacement, in part due to increasing failure of cash-crops like coffee.

As researchers investigate the connection between climate change and conflict, the relative power of communities and individuals attempting to cope with climate change has become a recurring theme. While climate change may not directly cause conflict, it may be inextricably woven into pre-existing conflicts of power, ethnicity, and economic interest.

The ongoing crisis at our southern border is exacerbating another, less visible, one—the crisis in elder and childcare in the United States. With baby boomers aging and more parents of young children working outside the home, our country’s need for non-familial caregivers is skyrocketing. Carework is growing five times faster than any other sector in our economy; in fact, it is set to become the largest paid occupation in the U.S. by next year. While US citizens are not keen to take these jobs, migrants, especially women, are. But the current bottleneck—not just at the border but throughout our immigration system—is slowing down the flow of these vital workers.

The number of migrants traveling from Central American countries (particularly El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras) destined for the United States has rapidly increased in recent years. In 2018, 87 percent of Central American immigrants came from those three countries, which account for most of the migrants at the U.S. southern border. Their numbers will likely only increase considering the Trump administration’s plan to cut around $700 million in aid to these three countries. The absence of aid will reduce countries’ ability to confront the violence, crime, and government instability within their borders—which act as some of the more notorious drivers of the movement north.

With rapidly aging populations and rising levels of female employment, the United States and other wealthy nations are facing unprecedented demands for non-familial care. These nations vary in their ability to address such demands. Those with more robust welfare states, including publicly supported, high-quality child care and elder care services and facilities, are generally able to meet growing needs for care, while those with weaker welfare states experience severe “care deficits,” leaving families with few alternatives. Increasingly, in the United States and elsewhere in the developed world, families are turning to migrants—usually women—to solve their care dilemmas.

The 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, released on January 29, mentions climate change as a threat that is “likely to fuel competition for resources, economic distress, and social discontent through 2019 and beyond.” The report features new topics such as election interference and threats to economic competitiveness while still including continuing threats such as cyber espionage and attacks, terrorism, and climate change. As a statement from Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Daniel R. Coats, for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, the assessment provides an overview of the national security threats facing the nation.