When the White House released the US Framework for Climate Resilience and Security in September 2024, it was an important opportunity to highlight the significant impacts of climate change on US national security, economic, and strategic interests. The Framework also emphasized the need for tailored approaches in fragile, conflict-affected, and vulnerable (FCV) contexts, particularly in managing and allocating resources, as well as ensuring that climate finance addresses conflict drivers.

Hurricanes Helene and Milton battered the southeastern US in September and October and caused a combined estimate of $300 billion in damages. These storms were only the latest example of a cascade of disasters that is expected to worsen as climate change intensifies. Yet the impacts do not stop at dollars and human lives. Threats to security and stability also will multiply as rising temperatures increase the variability of rainfall patterns and the intensity of storms.

One of academia’s latest buzz phrases is “the planetary.” While it may seem on the surface to lack a clear connection with climate security, a closer inspection suggests that this term does have significant relevance to discussions about this key concept.

Use of “the planetary” is an attempt to compel people to think much more carefully about the current human condition. The climate crisis—as well as the extinction event we are living through—are challenging contemporary notions that humans are somehow separate from nature. In short, a relatively stable world in which our infrastructure, economies, and modes of thinking remain rooted is no longer a useful construct.

Escalations in Middle East Spur Oil Security Concerns (Reuters)  

One year on from the brutal reignition of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict on October 7, 2023, the situation in the Middle East has escalated drastically. Hamas’ attack on Israel has been followed by Israeli strikes across the region, which have killed tens of thousands of civilians, displacing millions in Gaza and in Lebanon. Now, tit for tat attacks between Israel and Iran have made Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), worry about oil security in the region. 

Somalia is trapped in a cycle where climate impacts—droughts, floods, and erratic weather patterns—fuel displacement, poverty, and conflict. With agriculture and pastoralism at the core of its economy, the country is particularly vulnerable to these environmental shocks, which create fertile ground for insurgent groups to exploit the resulting instability.

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program 

COP29-Host Azerbaijan Accused of Hypocrisy (The Guardian)   

Azerbaijan holds the presidency for the upcoming COP29 in November 2024, and it is using that platform to call for all member states to cease any ongoing conflict they are involved in during the two-week conference. The Central Asian country will also host a “peace day” on November 15, and is putting forth a COP29 Climate and Peace Initiative to support vulnerable countries and advance action in the climate and peace nexus. 

The Pacific Institute recently updated its Water Conflict Chronology—a database of water-conflict events that began to take form in the 1980s. The recent updates include the addition of 300 new entries to the database, highlighting the alarming rise of water-related conflicts in the last few years. Despite this overwhelming evidence of a growing trend in water-related conflicts, global attention toward addressing them remains negligible.   

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Proliferation of Icebreakers in the Arctic (Foreign Policy) 

As climate change-induced melting of ice sheets clears new pathways, the fast-melting Arctic now has a new strategic race: icebreakers. Russia covers over half of what is defined as “Arctic” territory, and it has the largest number of icebreakers in the region. Russia’s attempt to consolidate and expand has led the US and its NATO allies to redefine their own Arctic security strategy.