Starting in 2014, the number of migrants from Central America’s Northern Triangle—Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras—surged, with border apprehensions increasing fivefold from 2010-2015. While apprehensions have declined from their peak, emigration from these countries has not necessarily slowed, and the conditions the migrants are seeking to escape have not changed. Experts blame the region’s widespread criminal violence for spurring migration. But the Northern Triangle countries also share similar ecology, staple crops, and vulnerability to climate events. While environmental and natural resource factors are just part of the complex picture, understanding how they intersect with other migration drivers is key to creating and implementing effective policy responses.

According to a 2015 Georgetown University report on women and climate change, “the impacts of climate change – droughts, floods, extreme weather, increased incidence of disease, and growing food and water insecurity – disproportionately affect the world’s 1.3 billion poor, the majority of whom are women.”

“The act of caregiving has unique impacts on women, in terms of economic, emotional, and physical well-being,” said Dr. Belén Garijo, the CEO for healthcare and executive board member of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany, at a recent Wilson Center event.

Just outside Nampula, in northern Mozambique, a huge granite dome overlooks the city, 500 feet high and a half-mile across. All along its southern flank, hundreds of men work in small groups, whittling away at the rock face with sledgehammers and picks. Smoke rises before dawn until well after dusk, as they stoke fires to heat the granite and use crowbars to prize free tombstone-sized slabs. Day by day, the mountain is carted away by the wheelbarrow-full. It’s backbreaking work that yields barely enough to live. Yet these informal quarries are nevertheless among the region’s largest employers. Certainly, more people have found work here than with Kenmare Resources, the Irish company that has sunk more than US$1 billion into mining titanium deposits along the nearby coast.

In late 2017, I visited the several Rohingya refugee camps (Leda, Mainner Ghona, & Kutupalong-Balukhali Makeshift Settlements) in Ukhia Upazila (Cox’s Bazar District), Bangladesh. These camps are home to more than a million refugees escaping ethnic violence in Myanmar.

Natural bioshields—wetlands, forests, and urban green spaces—are critical tools for reducing the impacts of disasters on vulnerable communities. Between 1994 and 2014, nearly 7,000 natural disasters occurred worldwide, causing an average of almost 68,000 deaths each year. Climate change, growing populations, and widening economic inequality are all expected to increase the impacts of disasters. Bioshields—nature’s own solutions to natural hazards—can help protect people from these dangerous floods, storms, and heat waves.

“Climate is unquestionably linked to armed conflict,” said Halvard Buhaug, a professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo and the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, at a recent Wilson Center event marking the end of the three-year Climate Anomalies and Violent Environments (CAVE) research project. But, he stresses that under a changing climate, exactly how and through what pathways is still a subject of much debate in the academic community.