A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program 

Room for Justice in Vietnam’s Energy Transition? (The Diplomat)

Vietnam’s crackdown on environmental leaders such as Hoàng Thị Minh Hồng on disputed charges raises significant concerns about human rights, transparency, and civil society’s role in its energy transition. These arrests have garnered international attention, but Vietnam’s government argues that they had nothing to do with environmental work. And while Hoàng and other activists have been released, their work remains curtailed. The message is clear: you’re not welcome here.

In April 2024, Thai government officials traveled to the Chinese provinces of Fujian and Guangdong with a single-point agenda – convincing the leading Chinese electric vehicle (EV) battery makers to invest in their country. Two months later, the global leader in the EV battery industry, China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Limited (CATL), announced an initial investment of over $100 million to set up an assembly plant in collaboration with a local Thai state-owned company.

At the recent G20 meeting in June 2024 in Rio de Janeiro, United Nations Secretary General António Guterres gave an ominous warning: “Unless we limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, spiraling disasters will devastate every economy.” Guterres implored governments to “speed-up the just transition from fossil fuels to renewables,” and declared that “the end of the fossil fuel age is inevitable.”

It is widely recognized that oil states are rarely democratic, and often conflict-prone. As these governments wind down their dependence on this toxic resource as part of broader global efforts to decarbonize, one might imagine that the end of oil will spell a better future for the citizens of oil-producing countries. Sadly, a look at the cases of fragile fossil fuel producing states (FFFPs) suggests that this may not be the case.

While traditional fuels likely will remain part of Africa’s energy portfolio for some time to come, the fossil fuel industry does face strong headwinds from a continuing global march towards alternative sources of clean energy. Indeed, the energy poverty experienced by nearly a billion Africans seems incomprehensible given the combination of massive untapped oil and gas resources, as well as available hydropower, solar and wind potential across the continent.

This article is adapted from Vince Beiser’s “Power Metal” newsletter.

If you’ve heard anything about the dark side of the shift to renewable energy and digital tech—one of the main topics of my new book, Power Metal: The Race for the Resources That Will Shape the Future—you’ve probably heard about the children working in cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). That particular outrage has been covered by major international news outlets, human rights organizations and another recent book, Cobalt Red. But it turns out there are many other places where children, as well as enslaved adults, are producing the metals that go into our electric cars and cell phones.

When I stepped into the bustling exhibition hall at Enlit Africa in Cape Town in May 2024, I was surprised by the riot of colorful banners featuring Chinese characters. A whopping 40% of the exhibitors at one of Africa’s largest energy and power conferences in Cape Town from China—more than any other country.