The Horn of Africa now faces an unprecedented drought, with conditions not seen in the last 40 years. The implications of this looming catastrophe reach beyond the most recent severe drought periods in the region, which occurred in 2010 and 2011 and again in 2016 and 2017.

As of November 2022, over 36 million people in the Horn were affected by drought, including 24.1 million in Ethiopia, 7.8 million in Somalia, and 4.2 million in Kenya. More than 20 million children in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia need immediate water and food assistance. In addition, nearly 1 million pregnant and lactating women are acutely malnourished. Since mid-2021, more than 9.5 million livestock have perished in the region due to a lack of water, starvation, and disease.

Is water important in climate policy? It seems obvious. Water has a well-established link as the medium of most negative climate impacts. Yet when it comes to addressing the climate crisis, the answer depends very much on who you ask.

As climate change is increasingly recognized as a security issue, a parallel understanding is also developing. Traditional categories and approaches may not be the optimal way to address the threats posed by climate impacts.

The nation states and international institutions at the center of security discussions now are shifting their approach. For instance, the U.S. has affirmed and moved to institutionalize its commitment to address the national security implications of climate change under the Biden Administration. In doing so, it is joining an increasing number of other nation-states (the UK, France, Sweden, Germany and New Zealand) that have also developed institutional arrangements and plans for their national response to climate insecurity.

Climate impacts are growing more frequent and severe as global temperatures rise. Weather-related disasters have seen a five-fold increase over the past half-century. In many cases, these calamities are already testing the adaptation capabilities of vulnerable communities across the world. If emissions follow the trajectory set by current country targets, the chance of temporarily overshooting the 1.5 °C target in the next five years is 48 percent.

This failure would have implications for the global economy and international security. Yet despite the fact that climate change shapes geopolitics, climate risk itself has rarely been featured in international geopolitics and diplomacy.

In recent years, the urgency of climate action has brought fresh attention to the critical minerals sector. Growing renewable energy investments are driving up demand for resources like lithium, cobalt, and copper, which form the mineral backbone of green technologies. But there are substantial concerns to navigate when it comes to sourcing green energy minerals.