At the recent G20 meeting in June 2024 in Rio de Janeiro, United Nations Secretary General António Guterres gave an ominous warning: “Unless we limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, spiraling disasters will devastate every economy.” Guterres implored governments to “speed-up the just transition from fossil fuels to renewables,” and declared that “the end of the fossil fuel age is inevitable.”

It is widely recognized that oil states are rarely democratic, and often conflict-prone. As these governments wind down their dependence on this toxic resource as part of broader global efforts to decarbonize, one might imagine that the end of oil will spell a better future for the citizens of oil-producing countries. Sadly, a look at the cases of fragile fossil fuel producing states (FFFPs) suggests that this may not be the case.

When I stepped into the bustling exhibition hall at Enlit Africa in Cape Town in May 2024, I was surprised by the riot of colorful banners featuring Chinese characters. A whopping 40% of the exhibitors at one of Africa’s largest energy and power conferences in Cape Town from China—more than any other country. 

Norway recently announced that electric vehicles (EV) now outnumber gas-powered ones on its highways for the first time—and that these vehicles comprise 80 percent of its current new car sales. While internal combustion engines (ICE) will not disappear for several years, Norway’s sales of ICE-powered vehicles will end abruptly in 2025.

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Proliferation of Icebreakers in the Arctic (Foreign Policy) 

As climate change-induced melting of ice sheets clears new pathways, the fast-melting Arctic now has a new strategic race: icebreakers. Russia covers over half of what is defined as “Arctic” territory, and it has the largest number of icebreakers in the region. Russia’s attempt to consolidate and expand has led the US and its NATO allies to redefine their own Arctic security strategy.  

Critical minerals—and the soaring demand for them—are a key challenge for policymakers and analysts around the world. The factors driving that demand, especially energy transition technologies like electric vehicle batteries, are usually the focus of discussion. But the story of critical minerals is two-sided; it features both demand and supply. 

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Mpox Outbreak a Global Health Emergency, Again (The Washington Post) 

Various rapidly spreading mpox strains in Central and East African countries have led the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare the viral infection as a global health emergency. More than 15,000 people have been infected this year alone, with over 500 deaths reported. Mpox is transmitted largely through exposure to infected animals, as well as via skin-to-skin or sexual contact, and it disproportionately affects heterosexuals and sex workers.

Energy is a bridge that has historically fostered the U.S.-India relationship. The reasons are many. Both economies focus on energy security, climate action, economic cooperation, and technological innovation.  

Recent innovations in India offer new challenges and opportunities. The country has rapidly deployed renewable energy (RE) technologies to meet its stated Net Zero targets. This effort has exceeded its promises; 40% of India’s electricity now comes from renewable sources. And the nation’s other ambitious target— installing 450 GW—would triple this existing capacity in less than ten years.