Ten miles south of Tel Aviv, I stand on a catwalk over two concrete reservoirs the size of football fields and watch water pour into them from a massive pipe emerging from the sand. The pipe is so large I could walk through it standing upright, were it not full of Mediterranean seawater pumped from an intake a mile offshore.

The idea that climate change is causing migration and displacement is entering the mainstream, but experts have warned against using the term “climate refugees” to describe what we’re seeing in small islands, coastal regions, and even conflict zones like Syria.

The International Expert Forum (IEF) is a series of seminars meant to facilitate dialogue between experts and policymakers on peace and security. Meeting in Stockholm this past May, the forum explored the connections between environmental issues, peacebuilding, and conflict while considering how environmental governance can aid in peacebuilding. The summary brief produced after the forum provides a useful snapshot of a fast-changing field of study.

Struggling to save their failing crops. Walking farther afield to fetch clean water. Protecting their families from devastating storms and violent conflicts. “Women are usually the support systems for our family…we are the last to leave in the event of a catastrophe, which is why women and families are disproportionately hurt by climate catastrophes,” said Wilson Center President, Director, and CEO Jane Harman on June 23 during a conference on women and climate change. [Video Below]

One fear of climate change is that more variable weather conditions will lead to violence and chaos in some places. But looking at it methodically, do erratic weather conditions actually lead to violent conflict and political instability? Not necessarily.

The eye catching headlines are familiar. “Water Wars” are imminent or already underway in the latest drought or dam-building hotspot. Such “wars” often extend to farmers battling over irrigation diversions, but at times countries are the players. Senior leaders are often quoted suggesting transboundary water theft constitutes a casus belli. Security officials are obliged to investigate.

Between 1961 and the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, Iraqi Kurdistan’s quest for independence has led to the violent death of an estimated 180,000 people. At least 12 independent political groups represent the Kurdish minority in the north of the country. These groups have pursued wildly different strategies to reach their goals, some orchestrating terrorist attacks or larger-scale violence, others choosing education and propaganda campaigns, the provision of social services to gain popular support, and demonstrations.

A working paper by Eoin Mcguire (Brown University) and Marshall Burke (Stanford University) examines the impact of food price increases on conflict in Africa. Under the hypothesis that negative income shocks contribute to the outbreak of conflict, the authors compare the effect of significant increases in food prices in communities that predominantly produce food to the effect in those that predominantly consume food. In food producing areas, conflict driven by food surplus allocations increased but conflict driven by territorial factors decreased.