How do we plan for disasters that have never occurred before? One million species are at risk of extinction in the near future from environmental changes. The frequency of historic tropical storms is increasing. The rapidly melting permafrost in the Arctic is placing unprecedented pressures on northern infrastructure. Given the overwhelming and unpredictable nature of new disaster risks, it is not clear what the appropriate responses should be. Our book, Disaster Security: Using Military and Intelligence Planning for Energy and Environmental Risks, addresses how to assess unique environmental hazards and disaster risks, based on tools used by the U.S. intelligence and military communities. The book draws on lessons learned from developing, applying, and translating scenarios and simulations (or wargames) to plan for future environmental security risks.

As researchers investigate the connection between climate change and conflict, the relative power of communities and individuals attempting to cope with climate change has become a recurring theme. While climate change may not directly cause conflict, it may be inextricably woven into pre-existing conflicts of power, ethnicity, and economic interest.

Contrary to popular belief, Lake Chad is not shrinking, according to Shoring up Stability: Addressing Climate and Fragility Risks in the Lake Chad Region, a new report from adelphi. This finding has profound implications for how the governments of countries bordering Lake Chad (Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon) as well as the international community should address the conflict trap in which the people of the region are caught. “Supporting the people of the basin,” write the authors, “is not a function of saving Lake Chad from desiccation.” 

One year after the Sichuan earthquake, while visiting villages near Wenchuan, I asked local officials planning reconstruction about their plans for wastewater treatment. As an agricultural engineering professor, I was not surprised to learn that they had no plans. It was not that a wastewater treatment system was too expensive, they worried that it would be too big.

In parts of the tropics, exposure to extreme temperature or rainfall in early life is associated with fewer years of schooling in later childhood. This finding comes from my new article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, with coauthor Clark Gray. As climate change leads to increasingly severe heat waves, floods, droughts, and hurricanes, it is important to understand how extreme weather impacts kids’ education in different parts of the world. This will help decisionmakers develop solutions to keep children in school in a world of increasing climate variability.

China’s food security is rooted in its soil.  Sadly, more than 40 percent of China’s soil is degraded from overuse, erosion, and pollution. The government’s 2014 soil survey revealed that 19 percent of China’s farmland was contaminated by metals such as lead, cadmium, and arsenic as well as organic and inorganic chemical pollutants. As part of its growing war on pollution, China’s central government enacted a new soil pollution law on January 1, 2019, to clean up contaminated sites. However, this new law targets just one of the many critical soil quality issues that reduce agricultural yield but does not address the problem of compacted soil.

As Arctic ice melts, we can physically see glaciers retreating. But what we can’t yet see is the exact effect climate change will have on the environment, humans, economies, and national security. Less ice for longer periods each year will likely bring opportunities and related challenges as Arctic and non-Arctic states jockey for position.

As we move past another Earth Day, environmentalists may be forgiven for assuming that little has changed. The best available evidence points to a rapidly changing climate, declining biodiversity, and fisheries on the verge of collapse. To further complicate matters, the political will to reverse these trends is being stymied by a surge of anti-environmental populism in America, Brazil and elsewhere. When coupled with the continued harvesting of natural resources by big multinational corporations, it is easy to see why environmentalists are crying into their organic kale and quinoa bowls.