Future projections of social disturbance due to climate change and ecological pressures provide little optimism for peace in conflict-affected areas over the coming decades. Yet, can we identify current hotspots and future areas of conflict risk? The fourth Ecological Threat Report (ETR), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace, attempts to do so by taking on the monumental task of evaluating the relationship between ecological threats and peace.

The new report documents a world of growing ecological threats and declining social resilience in the states and territories most vulnerable to a changing climate. And by assessing ecological threats, societal resilience, and levels of peacefulness at the state, territorial, subnational, and city levels, the report also finds a strong correlation between ecological threats and levels of peacefulness.

Panama Canal’s Water Woes Threaten International Trade Flow

The Panama Canal has operated as a gateway between the Atlantic to the Pacific for more than a century, relying on water to raise and lower the ships that help fuel international trade. But a recent drought has disrupted the normal functioning of the Canal’s locks, cutting into Panama’s revenue and also causing problems for global supply chains.

Nowhere is China’s critical mineral dominance greater than in rare earth supply chains. In 2022, the US government estimated that China controlled “nearly 60 percent of mined production, over 85 percent of processing capacity, and over 90 percent of permanent magnet production.”

Groundwater is relied upon for roughly half of global drinking water. And as climate change alters precipitation patterns and pollution of surface water continues to increase, our collective dependence on groundwater is likely to increase.

Getting ahead of the potential conflicts, or in some cases, catching up with them, requires an increase in effective groundwater cooperation and diplomacy. Yet the vast majority of transboundary aquifers exist without any form of agreement among the states that share them. This state of affairs leaves the aquifers—and the people who rely upon them—vulnerable to overexploitation, environmental degradation, and the risk of interstate conflict.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can significantly affect the country’s domestic and overseas energy transition and decarbonization agenda. Electricity projects in China’s BRI investments, contrary to popular impressions of being part of a monolithic “project of the century,” have divergent implications for the host country’s shift away from coal-based power plants.

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Carbon Markets: One Sheikh’s Interest in Africa’s Resources

Why has a company in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) taken an interest in Africa’s forests? Sheikh Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum ‘s company, Blue Carbon, recently initiated deals with several countries (Liberia, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) that exchange management of African forests in these nations for carbon credits.