“Political Marginalization, Climate Change, and Conflict in African Sahel States,” authored by Clionadh Raleigh and appearing in the March 2010 issue of International Studies Review, examines the relationship between political status, economic status, and conflict among African communities threatened by climate change. “[T]he risk of conflict depends largely on the size and political importance of ethnic groups,” Raleigh finds. “Small, politically insignificant ethnic groups experience most conflicts related to environmental pressures.” The work is geared toward helping practitioners predict where high levels of vulnerability and conflict may occur in the face of climate change. (SUBSCRIPTION ONLY)

A recent radio interview on the “Demographics of the Arab World” should be a must listen for those in the World Bank, where discussions of the Arab youth bulge are largely off the table.

The interview with Magda Abu-Fadil of the American University of Beirut and Bernard Haykel of Princeton University suggests that scholars of the Arab world are not so timid, as also evidenced by UNDP’s 2009 Arab Human Development Report.

Gorillas could disappear from the Congo basin in the next 10-15 years, according to a new report issued by the United Nations and Interpol. The Last Stand of the Gorilla – Environmental Crime and Conflict in the Congo Basin places responsibility for the decline of gorilla populations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and its surrounding region squarely on the shoulders of resource-hungry militants, who poach gorilla bushmeat to feed hungry soldiers and mine workers and sell in local markets. Militants extract timber, charcoal, diamonds, and other resources to raise funds for arms, reducing gorilla territory.

Yet another rationale is retaliation against park rangers who attempt to limit their illegal activities within national parks. In the process, park rangers have found themselves, their parks, and their endangered charges targets of militant groups seeking to plunder and traffic goods through protected areas. “In Virunga Park alone, 190 park rangers have been killed in the last 15 years,” notes the report, which is also available in an interactive e-book edition.

Conflict with local communities also frequently leads to the slaughter of the gorillas and loss of their habitats. Displaced people and refugees also compete with gorillas for land. In several cases, gorillas facing shrinking natural domains have satisfied their appetites in banana plantations, and local farmers have struck back.

Strengthening Law Enforcement

Not all, however, is dire. The report finds several success stories stemming out of transboundary law enforcement collaboration and recommends increased training and support for local and international law enforcement groups. “The gorillas are yet another victim of the contempt shown by organized criminal gangs for national and international laws aimed at defending wildlife,” said David Higgins, Interpol’s Environmental Crime Programme Manager. “The law enforcement response must be internationally coordinated, strong, and united, and Interpol is uniquely placed to facilitate this.”

Law enforcement in the Congo Basin faces an uphill battle, in part due to conditions present in peace agreements between guerillas and the Congolese government. Removing vehicle checkpoints from important border crossings was key to the insurgents agreeing to peace. While these agreements reduced violence, they have created a highway for illegal exports. This trade props up the militant groups and undercuts the chances for peace on a regional scale. It is an example of how large remaining quantities of automatic weapons and turns to poaching by ex-militants can render post-conflict environments even more damaging to local wildlife than war itself.

Toward Coexistence

In some locations, conflicts between gorillas and local farmers are disappearing with the construction of natural barriers and as local populations realize the potential of ecotourism to generate greater revenue from thriving gorilla populations than collapsing ones. Greater international coordination and local commitment, however, are necessary. Turning threatening competition into beneficial cooperation is possible.

Tara Innes is a PhD student at the University of Maryland, studying conflict-environment linkages.

Photos: Gorilla, courtesy Flickr user mrflip; Gorilla Territory Affected by War, Mining, and Logging courtesy UNEP/GRID-Arendal.

“The Department of Defense is not the U.S. government lead for climate change, but we certainly can show leadership in this area,” Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy Amanda Dory recently told an audience at the Woodrow Wilson Center. “That’s true of energy as well.”

Will new investments by the Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC) in the Aynak copper mine break Afghanistan out of its poverty trap? Will future revenues from the subsoil assets in Logar Province bring peace and stability to the ongoing conflict?

The U.S. Institute of Peace brought together expert panelists to discuss the pitfalls and possibilities related to the Aynak contract. Discussed were current uncertainties in investment plans, future risks related to mine operations, how the various stakeholders of the Aynak project can be more engaged in the process, as well as the planned reinvestment of economic benefits within the broader economy.

An emerging coalition in Israel dramatically illustrates how common environmental concerns can create unexpected partnerships across difficult political barriers. Through programs initiated by Friends of the Earth Middle East, the Israeli and Palestinian residents of Wadi Fukin and Tzur Hassadah (see inset map) have joined together to oppose the construction of a planned security barrier between their two communities.


View Good Water Neighbors in a larger map

The barrier, an element of the Israeli Green Line, threatens to disrupt karstic springs that support traditional agriculture in the Fukin valley. One third of the Israeli residents of Tzur Hadassah petitioned to halt construction, reports Israeli newspaper Haaretz.

“The Israeli community understood that instead of providing them with security, the fence would harm the springs and lands of the village, and will rob the Palestinian farmers of their livelihood and arouse hatred toward their Israeli neighbors,” Friends of the Earth Middle East (FoEME) Director Gidon Bromberg told Haaretz.

On February 24th, Israelis and Palestinians from both communities met to organize their response to the construction of the separation barrier, including preparing to petition to the Israeli High Court of Justice.

“The case of Wadi Fukin is special, because it is the first time that the resistance of the residents is not based on human rights allegations. Objections here are from an environmental organization,” FoEME attorney Michael Sfard told NRG news.

Since 2001, FoEME’s Good Water Neighbors project has helped divided communities come together over shared natural resources. By collaborating with community members to improve their water situation, the organization encourages sustainable water management through information sharing, dialogue, and cooperative ventures. While the majority of the communities share common surface water sources, including the Jordan and Zomar rivers, some, as with Wadi Fukin and Tzur Hassadah, rely on common underground aquifers.

This “natural interdependence,” says Bromberg, helps to create trust and solve problems facing both communities.

Photo: Courtesy Friends of the Earth Middle East

Environmental problems that amplify regional security issues are often multifaceted, especially across national boundaries. Obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the natural resource, energy, and security issues facing a region is not fast or easy.

Fortunately, the Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) has created highly informative, easy-to-understand maps depicting environmental, health, population, and security issues in critical regions.

Published with assistance from the United Nations GRID-Arendal, these maps offer policymakers and the public a snapshot of the complex topography of environmental security hotspots in Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Southeastern Europe, and the Southern Caucasus.

How is water shaping geopolitics in the 21st century? Is it an underlying factor for state failure and social conflict, or can it drive peace and cooperation? How will climate change reshape global water resources?

Recently, on WAMU’s “The Diane Rehm Show,” ECSP Director Geoff Dabelko, author Steven Solomon, and the World Bank’s Julia Bucknall came together to discuss the history, politics, economics, and future of water.

“Climate change exacerbates the water crisis in very severe ways because it manifests itself through water —through floods, droughts, and melting glaciers,” said Solomon.

The World Bank’s Julia Bucknell highlighted climate change projections that indicate average precipitation increases are likely, mostly in the global North. “It is the poorer countries that show up red on the maps with a reduction in precipitation,” she said.

By compounding failing states’ limited capacity to secure existing water supplies for agriculture, sanitation, and human consumption, decreasing precipitation will result in further intensification of global public health and food security crises.

“We need to improve the existing productivity of the water we’ve got,” said Solomon. “We need to use it more efficiently and fairly in a way that protects the ecosystems.”

Countries such as Australia, Israel, and China are leading the way: even under arid conditions, they use innovative methods to remain productive. In Australia, a new regime allows water rights to be traded, even over cellphones, while China established a credit-based system for individual farmers by using remote sensing technology based on NASA data.

Governments are under pressure to address climate change directly, while managing vexing local and regional challenges. “Our political institutions and our political leaders must not deal with the short term and pretend things will go back to a state of normalcy, but [should] progressively and proactively shape and reshape the institutions,” said Dabelko.

Countries with traditionally contentious relationships have cooperated to solve common water problems. The Financial Times recently reported on an agreement between China and India to jointly assess trends in Himalayan glacier and snow melt.

“There are prospects for tensions,” said Dabelko of the Himalayas, “but quite frankly, water is difficult to [obtain] through war. It’s hard to pick it up and take it home.”

To listen to the full audio recording, click here.

Photo: Just Add Water, Courtesy of Flickr Member MΛЯK
Photo: Melting Glacier at Jokuldalur, Iceland 2, Courtesy of Flickr Member, ChrisGoldNY