As COP27 draws to a close, the conference is proving to be a disappointment for environmental advocates focused on eliminating the planet’s number one emitter: coal-fired power.

Yet only a year ago, at the UN climate talks in Glasgow, it felt different. At that time, one could be forgiven for getting excited about the prospects for phasing out coal fired power. Countries had committed to ending its use. Tantalizingly, coalitions of international partners and multilateral development institutions also introduced mechanisms that could help finance closures at scale.

Of the many ways in which the 2020 presidential election might reshape American society, its impact on climate policy may well be the most significant. The Biden administration’s ability to move forward with its agenda, however, is greatly constrained by the carbon-climate cleavage that increasingly shapes American legislative politics and electoral competition. The administration has met this challenge with a three-prong strategy intended to bridge this cleavage.

Coal has long been China’s “black gold,” supplying over half of the nation’s electricity. Yet as coal’s energy share decreases due to domestic action to reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, a new coal industry is emerging. In China’s arid northwest, eight plants are pulverizing coal chunks and “cooking” coal powder into something more valuable than power—or maybe even gold. These coal conversion plants, soon numbering over 20, churn out chemicals to produce plastic.

At the September 2019 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) Climate Summit, the U.S. delegation, under the shadow of intended withdrawal from Paris, did not volunteer a speaker. Attention instead focused on China. As the world’s largest carbon emitter, China was poised to assert leadership on the climate crisis.  However, perhaps lacking the sibling rivalry pressure that brought the U.S. and China together in 2014 on a joint climate agreement, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi offered no new commitments: no carbon tax, no increased investment in renewables, and no announcement to set a more ambitious coal consumption cap.

Blanketed by freshly fallen snow, mountains of the Teton Range loomed above as I explored the picturesque town of Jackson, Wyoming. A native Bostonian, I had no experience in the heart of the country, but that week I wasn’t the only outsider wandering Jackson’s icy streets. In November 2018, experts from all over the world gathered in Jackson to attend the Jackson Hole Center for Global Affairs Forum with one common goal: to identify the challenges and opportunities for coal communities worldwide as they transition their economies away from coal.  

China’s war on pollution and goals to lower carbon emissions are noteworthy as the United States takes a back seat in the global energy transition. Cleaner air and low carbon efforts in China could significantly change the country’s environmental health story and contribute to global efforts to lower greenhouse gas emissions. However, China’s energy reforms look less green now than they seemed after Paris in 2015. While China’s rate of increase in CO₂ emissions has slowed and the share of renewables in its energy mix continues to grow, the Chinese government’s pursuit of clean air along its east has shifted more polluting and water-intensive coal-fired power development into the country’s west. To continue to lead the way in this “Asian Century,” China must further incorporate water-saving reforms into its energy and environment plans.

From the cultural hub of Lahore down to the bustling ports of Karachi, smog is king in Pakistan, with citizens enduring unhealthy air quality for much of the year. The smog, generated mostly by crop and garbage burning and diesel emissions from furnaces and cars, could get worse by the end of this year when Pakistan opens five new Chinese-built coal power plants, funded by a $6.8 billion venture under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) initiative. These five plants are just the beginning of the Pakistan government’s planned 7,560 MW expansion in coal power, which are CPEC-energy priority projects. “It’s a perfect storm for a pollution crisis,” said Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center’s Asia Program. “The poor will continue to burn a variety of polluting materials to produce fuel, and now you’re also going to be introducing dirty coal into the mix. Combine that with crop burning in the countrywide and car exhaust fumes in rapidly growing cities, and you’ve got a really smoggy mess on your hands—and in your lungs.”