Exactly 25 years ago the international community met in Cairo for the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development. In the aftermath of the Cold War, ethnic conflict seemed to be exploding globally and research on the role of population growth and resource scarcity found an eager audience among policy makers struggling to understand this new international disorder. ECSP’s founding in that same year positioned the program as a leader in bringing together the scholarly and policy communities around non-traditional security issues over the last 25 years. The last two-and-a-half decades have brought tremendous change in population trends, environmental change, and the security landscape. Over the next 25 years three trends will shape the agenda of those working on the nexus of population-environment-security issues.

Climate change is widely recognised as one of the major forces shaping the future. Climate impacts illustrate in stark clarity how human actions fundamentally affect the basic physical processes of the planet with vast and, in the worst cases, disastrous consequences for communities around the world. Given these profound impacts, climate change is increasingly treated as a security risk. As a changing climate is causing and will continue to cause diverse impacts across the globe, the associated security challenges are multifaceted. They involve human, community, state, and international security risks, and will require responses across all levels of decision-making, from the local to international.

Over the years, experts have cautioned against speaking of “climate refugees.” They argue that the term “refugee,” as defined by the 1951 Refugee Convention, only applies to those who flee across borders out of fear of persecution and violence. Furthermore, evidence shows that migration is a complex phenomenon. While climate change may influence decisions to migrate to some degree, it would likely drive internal movement along well-worn migration routes, often rural-urban in nature. Ultimately, experts have argued that policymakers should think of migration as a form of adaptation to climate change, and reject the term “climate refugee.”

“If you live in the developed world or in some urban centers, then the supply of water is guaranteed,” said Gordon Mumbo, team leader for Sustainable Water for the Mara River Basin, a project of Winrock International and USAID’s Sustainable Water Partnership, in this week’s Water Stories podcast. When you wake up, you expect water to flow from your tap. “If you don’t find it flowing, you get upset and will probably call the utility company.” But people living in the Mara River Basin don’t have that luxury. “They have to walk to the river to get water and bring it home,” said Mumbo.