A new contribution in a continuing series examining “backdraft“—the unintended consequences of climate change responses—and how its effects might be anticipated and minimized to avoid conflict and promote peace.

Climate change is widely recognized as one the greatest threats to peace and security in the 21^st century. The causal pathways that link deteriorating environmental conditions, insecurity, and conflict, while seldom automatic or linear, are, nevertheless, ubiquitous. The adverse impacts of climate change exacerbate other risk factors, especially in already fragile contexts. In turn, these factors magnify pre-existing economic, social, or political drivers of insecurity.

The UN Environment Programme has ranked Iraq as the fifth most vulnerable country to climate change. In recent years, it has increasingly witnessed extreme heatwaves with temperatures reaching above 50°C. Iraq’s mean annual temperature also is predicted to increase by two degrees Celsius by 2050. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is sending shockwaves through global systems for natural resources like food, oil and natural gas, and critical minerals. But a recent Wilson Center event assessing the fallout of the conflict also looked to the deeper implications and lessons from the crisis.

When considering the potential effects of “backdraft” on climate change responses, the question of the world’s water future may be the most salient of all—especially as we examine water supplies and freshwater ecosystem health.

Collecting plastic fragments was a game he played while helping his parents farm when growing up in rural Shandong Province, says Dr. Zhao Kaiguang, who is now an associate professor of Environment and Natural Resources at The Ohio State University: “I wanted to collect the most, but did not realize the serious negative implications of leaving plastic in the soil.”

Global insecurity driven by the conflict in Ukraine and pandemic-induced instability has come powerfully into confluence to increase threats to livelihoods across the world.

What can we do to stem the tide? This Earth Day is an opportunity to rally for action that will help us all face such challenges now and in years to come. One of the most powerful ways to do so is to solidify and expand the reach of sustainable markets. There are a number of ways that this process can begin right now.

On the night of April 14, 2014, a group of militants attacked the Government Girls Secondary School in Chibok, Nigeria. They kidnapped 276 female students, ranging from ages 15 to 19 years. An armed group called Boko Haram claimed responsibility for the kidnapping.

“This is not the refugee wave we have been used to, people we were not sure about their identity, people with unclear pasts, who could have been even terrorists. In other words, there is not a single European country now which is afraid of the current wave of refugees.”