The intensifying enmity between the United States and Russia arising from the war in Ukraine may obscure a fundamental and durable milestone in climate science: One of the most significant pieces of evidence substantiating a shared major security concern—anthropogenic climate change—was the result of United States, French, and Russian cooperation. Ice cores drilled at Russia’s Antarctic Vostok Station provided among the most incontrovertible proof linking human greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to increasing atmospheric temperatures—over two decades ago.

Effective climate action demands urgent transformational change. It is also increasingly clear that responses to climate change—whether focused on curbing emissions or adapting to climate impacts—can profoundly influence and change how people live. It touches upon many aspects of their everyday life, including their livelihoods, where they live, and their roles in the community. These changes also can have substantial effects on the socio-ecological systems in which people live— bringing unintended tensions and drivers of conflict that are referred to broadly as backdraft. 

A new contribution in a continuing series examining “backdraft“—the unintended consequences of climate change responses—and how its effects might be anticipated and minimized to avoid conflict and promote peace.

Climate change is widely recognized as one the greatest threats to peace and security in the 21^st century. The causal pathways that link deteriorating environmental conditions, insecurity, and conflict, while seldom automatic or linear, are, nevertheless, ubiquitous. The adverse impacts of climate change exacerbate other risk factors, especially in already fragile contexts. In turn, these factors magnify pre-existing economic, social, or political drivers of insecurity.

The UN Environment Programme has ranked Iraq as the fifth most vulnerable country to climate change. In recent years, it has increasingly witnessed extreme heatwaves with temperatures reaching above 50°C. Iraq’s mean annual temperature also is predicted to increase by two degrees Celsius by 2050. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is sending shockwaves through global systems for natural resources like food, oil and natural gas, and critical minerals. But a recent Wilson Center event assessing the fallout of the conflict also looked to the deeper implications and lessons from the crisis.

When considering the potential effects of “backdraft” on climate change responses, the question of the world’s water future may be the most salient of all—especially as we examine water supplies and freshwater ecosystem health.

Collecting plastic fragments was a game he played while helping his parents farm when growing up in rural Shandong Province, says Dr. Zhao Kaiguang, who is now an associate professor of Environment and Natural Resources at The Ohio State University: “I wanted to collect the most, but did not realize the serious negative implications of leaving plastic in the soil.”

Global insecurity driven by the conflict in Ukraine and pandemic-induced instability has come powerfully into confluence to increase threats to livelihoods across the world.

What can we do to stem the tide? This Earth Day is an opportunity to rally for action that will help us all face such challenges now and in years to come. One of the most powerful ways to do so is to solidify and expand the reach of sustainable markets. There are a number of ways that this process can begin right now.