In April 2024, Thai government officials traveled to the Chinese provinces of Fujian and Guangdong with a single-point agenda – convincing the leading Chinese electric vehicle (EV) battery makers to invest in their country. Two months later, the global leader in the EV battery industry, China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Limited (CATL), announced an initial investment of over $100 million to set up an assembly plant in collaboration with a local Thai state-owned company.

At the recent G20 meeting in June 2024 in Rio de Janeiro, United Nations Secretary General António Guterres gave an ominous warning: “Unless we limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, spiraling disasters will devastate every economy.” Guterres implored governments to “speed-up the just transition from fossil fuels to renewables,” and declared that “the end of the fossil fuel age is inevitable.”

It is widely recognized that oil states are rarely democratic, and often conflict-prone. As these governments wind down their dependence on this toxic resource as part of broader global efforts to decarbonize, one might imagine that the end of oil will spell a better future for the citizens of oil-producing countries. Sadly, a look at the cases of fragile fossil fuel producing states (FFFPs) suggests that this may not be the case.

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program 

Humanitarians Highlight the Climate-Conflict Nexus  (The New Humanitarian) 

Climate change’s disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations exacerbate socioeconomic inequalities and conflict, particularly during natural disasters. This vexed connection has led humanitarians and peacebuilders increasingly to address climate and conflict challenges together in order to provide integrated relief, recovery, and aid.

While traditional fuels likely will remain part of Africa’s energy portfolio for some time to come, the fossil fuel industry does face strong headwinds from a continuing global march towards alternative sources of clean energy. Indeed, the energy poverty experienced by nearly a billion Africans seems incomprehensible given the combination of massive untapped oil and gas resources, as well as available hydropower, solar and wind potential across the continent.

A window into what we’re reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program 

Shell Wins Appeal to Overturn Landmark Emissions Ruling (Al Jazeera)  

Three years ago, a court in the Netherlands ruled in favor of environmentalists and required energy giant Shell to drastically reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The decision would compel the company to cut the absolute carbon emissions it created in 2019 by 45% by the year 2030—including emissions caused by its products. This ruling was the first of its kind by requiring companies to adhere to the Paris Agreement, and it ignited further attempts by climate activists to take legal measures against other fossil fuel companies.   

A new United Nations report calls upon countries to deliver drastically stronger action on climate change. “Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air…please!” is intended to raise the alarm at a significant moment: less than a month before nations head to Azerbaijan for COP29, and just a few months before the preparation and submission of new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) next February ahead of COP30 in Brazil.