Indonesia is at the heart of the next decade of growth in Asia. It also is at the frontier of Chinese industry’s move to develop clean energy markets overseas. The Indonesian government and Chinese investors are aligned on a narrative of decarbonization, but on the ground, coal remains central.

As the world inches closer to the critical 1.5°C warming threshold, the demand for decisive climate leadership has never been more pressing. The US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on January 20, 2025 has left a leadership void. The confluence of these events also has raised the question of whether China can do more to fill the finance gap and help Global South countries decarbonize. 

Indonesia’s economy is on a roll. The archipelago nation harbors ambitions for 8% growth a year on its growing strength as an exporter of coal, palm oil, LNG, and stainless steel made from its booming nickel mining industry.

Investments from China are driving this growth—and run the gamut from traditionally dirty industries (mining, steel, and aluminum) to the crown jewels of Chinese clean energy tech: batteries,  electric vehicles (EVs), and solar panel production. In 2023, Xinyi Glass, the world’s largest solar PV panel maker, announced an 11.5 billion USD investment in a quartz sand processing plant in Indonesia. 

The Wutongshan River flows through the east suburbs of Shenzhen and the basin is an important ecological zone for Shenzhen, which is often referred to as the “lungs of Shenzhen.” Rich in plant and animal resources, this area is the city’s natural museum and a genetic reservoir for flora and fauna. The river importantly provides 70% of Hong Kong’s and 40% of Shenzhen’s water. 

In April 2024, Thai government officials traveled to the Chinese provinces of Fujian and Guangdong with a single-point agenda – convincing the leading Chinese electric vehicle (EV) battery makers to invest in their country. Two months later, the global leader in the EV battery industry, China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Limited (CATL), announced an initial investment of over $100 million to set up an assembly plant in collaboration with a local Thai state-owned company.

In his speech on the world’s struggle against poverty at the 19th G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro in November 2024, China’s President Xi Jinping, cited his country’s standout track record of wealth creation, and exulted: “If China can make it, other developing countries can make it too.

China’s promise to guide the Global South on the path toward modernization has included support for green and sustainable development. Yet its pledge also holds a central environmental challenge, especially as the share of global greenhouse gas emissions from emerging markets and developing economies continues to increase. 

On Son Island in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, Le Trung Tin scatters fish feed into his ponds, where dozens of snakehead fish leap through the surface in synchronised bursts. “I taught them how to do that,” he says proudly, tossing another handful of feed at his fish.

The scene looks idyllic, but Le’s fish farm is a reluctant response to an escalating crisis. For decades, he made his living fishing the Hau River, a distributary of the Mekong. But in recent years, plastic waste clogged his nets and strangled the fish. “I had no choice but to stop,” he says. “Everything was tangled – trash, nets, even the fish themselves. It was hopeless.”

While traditional fuels likely will remain part of Africa’s energy portfolio for some time to come, the fossil fuel industry does face strong headwinds from a continuing global march towards alternative sources of clean energy. Indeed, the energy poverty experienced by nearly a billion Africans seems incomprehensible given the combination of massive untapped oil and gas resources, as well as available hydropower, solar and wind potential across the continent.