The recent floods and landslides in Brazil, displacing almost 100,000 and killing at least 100, reminds us that climate change-fueled extreme weather, combined with an intense El Niño, is a deadly combination. Governor Eduardo Leite of the southern Brazilian province, Rio Grande du Sol, described the devastation the region was subjected to as “unprecedented.” As President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva noted: “We need to stop running behind disasters. We need to see in advance what calamities might happen and we need to work.”

A window into what we are reading at the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program

Southern Africa’s Drought Offers a Window into the Region’s Climate Future

Southern Africa has been hit by one of its worst droughts in decades, and this calamity highlights the vulnerability of smallholder farmers who rely on rainfed agriculture. For the first time, farmers like Esnart Chogani, who works on a farm just outside Zambia’s capital, Lusaka, were unable to bring in a harvest. The region is normally a major exporter of maize, yet it now has begun importing the grain to meet demand.

The potential threat climate change poses to peace and security is perhaps nowhere more apparent than in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are one way MENA countries can address this compound risk.

UN World Wildlife Crime Report Reveals Harm of Wildlife Trafficking (UN Office on Drugs and Crime)

In the third World Wildlife Crime Report, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) discussed trends in illicit trafficking of protected species, analyzed wildlife crime harms and impacts, and took stock of all current knowledge on intervention effectiveness. This report is more comprehensive than its predecessors in 2016 and 2020 due to increased reporting. Despite 20 years of effort, wildlife trafficking persists and is connected with powerful organized crime groups operating in fragile ecosystems. This has implications not only for the spread of organized crime, but also for biodiversity loss and subsequent impacts on climatic fragility.

A new report by the US Intelligence Community highlights what the world stands to lose if it fails to cooperate on global health. The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) “Dynamics Shaping Global Health Security In the Next Decade” outlines the dire effects of climate change, changing demographics, and the erosion of trust in institutions on global health security. The NIE on Global Health Security was made publicly available in April 2024, on the heels of the Biden-Harris Administration’s launch of a new Global Health Security Strategy.

Historically, efforts to mitigate climate change have taken precedence over building resilience to its impacts. But from Pakistan to the Amazon, communities on the front lines are already experiencing the devastating effects of a warming world.

In recent weeks, devastating floods have claimed the lives of over 450 people in East Africa, as heavy rains linked to El Niño and changing climate patterns overwhelmed communities and infrastructure. Similar tragedies unfolding in Brazil, Pakistan, and Afghanistan underscore the human cost of being unequipped to protect against the worst impacts of climate change.

In a new Occasional Paper published by the Wilson Center’s Middle East Program and ECSP, journalist Taylor Luck examines the climate priorities of wealthy and middle-income countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Luck analyzes the policies adopted by MENA states, highlighting gaps and offering recommendations to strengthen climate action in a region strained by both instability and climate change.