Showing posts by Wilson Center Staff.
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Peter Gleick on Peak Water
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“The purpose of the whole debate about peak water is to help raise awareness about the nature of the world’s water problems and to help drive toward solutions,” says the Pacific Institute’s Peter Gleick. But Gleick asserts that in the same way certain countries have been contending with “peak oil” concerns in recent years, they may soon also have to deal with “peak water” as well.
Unlike oil, water is largely a renewable resource, but countries in Asia, the Middle East, and elsewhere are pumping groundwater faster than aquifers can replenish naturally. Gleick explains “there will be a peak of production in many of those places and eventually the food that we grow with that water or the widgets that we make from the factories that use that water will be nonsustainable and production will have to drop.”
The world’s surface and groundwater resources can be used sustainably even in the face of continued global population growth, says Gleick, but only “if we are careful about the ecological consequences and the efficiency with which we use it.” However, to date, he says, “those issues have not adequately been brought into the discussion about water policy.”
The “Pop Audio” series is also available as podcasts on iTunes. -
End of the Year Edition: Top 10 Posts for 2010
›The New Security Beat’s 2010 top ten (measured by unique pageviews) included guest contributions from Marc Levy, Todd Walters, and the UK’s Royal Society, a post by West Point Cadet Marie Hokenson, a video feature with Peter Gleick, and posts on global enviro-security hot spots Afghanistan, India, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Yemen:
1. Watch: Peter Gleick on Peak Water
“The concept of ‘peak water’ is very analogous to peak oil…we’re using fossil groundwater. That is, we’re pumping groundwater faster than nature naturally recharges it,” says Peter Gleick in this short expert analysis from the Environmental Change and Security Program. Gleick, president and co-founder of the Pacific Institute and author of the newest edition of The World’s Water, explains the new concept of peak water.
2. Copper in Afghanistan: Chinese Investment at Aynak
Will new investments by the Metallurgical Corporation of China (MCC) in the Aynak copper mine break Afghanistan out of its poverty trap? Will future revenues from the subsoil assets in Logar Province bring peace and stability to the ongoing conflict?
3. DRC’s Conflict Minerals: Can U.S. Law Impact the Violence?
Apple CEO Steve Jobs, in a personal email posted by Wired, recently tried to explain to a concerned iPhone customer the complexity of ensuring Apple’s devices do not use conflict minerals like those helping to fund the civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo. However much one might be tempted to pile on Apple at the moment, Mr. Jobs is on to something with regard to the conflict minerals trade – expressing outrage and raising awareness of the problem is one thing but actually implementing an effective solution is quite another.
4. India’s Maoists: South Asia’s “Other” Insurgency
The Indian government’s battle with Maoist and tribal rebels – which affects 22 of India’s 35 states and territories, according to Foreign Policy and in 2009 killed more people than any year since 1971 – has been largely ignored in the West. That should change, as South Asia’s “other” insurgency, fomenting in the world’s largest democracy and a key U.S. partner, offers valuable lessons about the role of resource management and stable development in preventing conflict.
5. On the Beat: Climate-Security Linkages Lost in Translation
A recent news story summarizing some interesting research by Halvard Buhaug carried the headline “Civil war in Africa has no link to climate change.” This is unfortunate because there’s nothing in Buhaug’s results, which were published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, to support that conclusion.
6. Guest Contributor Todd Walters: Imagine There’s No Countries: Conservation Beyond Borders in the Balkans
International peace parks have captured the imagination of visionaries like Nelson Mandela, who called them a “concept that can be embraced by all.” Such parks—also known as transboundary protected areas—span national boundaries, testifying to the peaceful collaborative relationship between neighboring countries and to the co-existence of humans and nature.
7. Restrepo: Inside Afghanistan’s Korengal Valley
Restrepo, the riveting new documentary film from Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger, follows a platoon of U.S. soldiers deployed in the dangerous Korengal Valley of Afghanistan. As a cadet at West Point majoring in human geography, I was fascinated to watch the ways the soldiers confronted and adapted to the challenges posed by the local culture of the remote Afghan community surrounding their outpost.
8. UK Royal Society: Call for Submissions: “People and the Planet” Study To Examine Population, Environment, Development Links
In the years that followed the Iranian revolution, when Ayatollah Khomeini returned from exile to Tehran and the country went to war against Iraq, the women of Iran were called upon to provide the next generation of soldiers. Following the war the country’s fertility rate fell from an average of over seven children per woman to around 1.7 children per woman – one of the fastest falls in fertility rates recorded over the last 25 years.
9. Demographics, Depleted Resources, and Al Qaeda Inflame Tensions in Yemen
A second spectacular Al Qaeda attack on Yemeni government security buildings in less than a month is a worrisome sign that the terrorist group may be trying to take advantage of a country splitting at the seams. U.S. officials are concerned that Yemen, like neighboring Somalia, may become a failed state due to a myriad of challenges, including a separatist movement in the south, tensions over government corruption charges, competition for dwindling natural resources, and one of the fastest growing populations in the world.
10. Eye on Environmental Security: Visualizing Natural Resources, Population, and Conflict
Environmental problems that amplify regional security issues are often multifaceted, especially across national boundaries. Obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the natural resource, energy, and security issues facing a region is not fast or easy.
Photo Credit: Collage from individual posts (left to right, top to bottom): Peter Gleick courtesy of ECSP’s Youtube channel; “Yemen pol 2002,” via Wikimedia Commons courtesy of the U.S. Federal Government; “Mutual support,” courtesy of flickr user The U.S. Army; “KE139S11 World Bank,” courtesy of flickr user World Bank Photo Collection; “Mineral and Forests of the DRC” from ECSP Report 12, courtesy of Philippe Rekacewicz, Le Monde diplomatique, Paris, and Environment and Security Institute, The Hague, January 2003; IPPE/Cory Wilson; “Environmental Issues in the Northern Caspian Sea,” courtesy of the Environment & Security Initiative; “Wandering Aesthetic” courtesy of flickr user Wen-Yan King; and “River and Mountains of Logar,” courtesy of flickr user AfghanistanMatters. -
Top 10 Posts for December 2010
›Pop Audios from Roger-Mark De Souza and John Bongaarts, water conflict on the Mekong river, a take on Restrepo from one of this summer’s West Pointers, and demographic security on the Hill topped the list last month:
1. Pop Audio: From Cancun: Roger-Mark De Souza on Women and Integrated Climate Adaptation Strategies
2. Managing the Mekong: Conflict or Compromise?
3. Pop Audio: John Bongaarts on the Impacts of Demographic Change in the Developing World
4. Restrepo: Inside Afghanistan’s Korengal Valley
5. Demographic Security Comes to the Hill
6. The Future of Sub-Saharan Africa’s Tentative Fertility Decline
7. On the Beat: Where Have all the Malthusians Gone?
8. Bringing Cambodia Back from the Brink: Audio Interview with Suwanna Gauntlett
9. COP-16 Cancun Coverage Wrap-up: An Integrated Climate Dialogue
10. India’s Maoists: South Asia’s “Other” Insurgency -
Evidence, Links, and Solutions
Maternal Undernutrition
›“Maternal undernutrition is often overlooked as a strategy for reducing poverty and as a key intervention to reduce maternal mortality and morbidity,” said Mary Ellen Stanton, senior maternal health advisor at the U.S. Agency for International Development. Stanton was joined by Dr. Doyin Oluwole, director of the Africa’s Health in 2010 program, and Amy Webb Girard, assistant professor at the Emory University School of Public Health, in the final meeting of the Advancing Policy Dialogue on Maternal Health series on December 15 where they addressed the linkages between poverty, undernutrition, and poor maternal health outcomes.
The Cycle of Malnutrition and Poverty
Many factors contribute to a woman’s nutritional status, including lack of capital, access to land, and poverty; thus, said Oluwole, “we must adopt a multi-pronged and multi-sectoral response.”“General malnutrition is usually associated with iron-deficiency anemia, which leads to poor cognitive function and educational achievement, poor health, and fatigue.” Oluwole said. “These three factors lead to low worker productivity, and low worker productivity leads to income poverty.”
“All of these aggravate malnutrition and so the vicious cycle of malnutrition and poverty continues,” said Oluwole. To break this cycle, she pointed out that countries like Malawi and Mexico have implemented various multi-sectoral interventions that have “stimulated economic growth; implemented targeted social, health, and nutrition programs; and put in place safety nets.”
“In the window of opportunity during pregnancy and the first two years of life, we can make a big difference,” Oluwole said. She advocated for an “integrated anemia package” that provides anti-malarials, de-worming medicine, iron folic acid tablets, and extra food during pregnancy. She also noted the importance of family planning and targeted high-coverage interventions, such as salt iodization, vitamin A supplementation, and breastfeeding promotion.
In conclusion, Oluwole provided several recommendations for the development community to improve maternal mortality rates and undernutrition of women:
Maternal Undernutrition: Our Global Disgrace- Promote universal primary and secondary education, especially for girls
- Stimulate economic growth with a focus on gender and equity
- Invest in infrastructure to reduce transportation time to hospitals
- Postpone age of marriage and of first pregnancy
- Provide targeted and effective nutrition and health interventions
- Encourage private sector participation and government leadership
- Integrate the maternal health and nutrition communities and services
“We don’t tend to look at maternal nutrition and its impacts on the woman herself,” said Girard. The lack of data on the relationship between nutrition and maternal health outcomes “hampers our ability to move maternal nutrition onto the health and development agenda,” she added.“Anemia is widespread; worldwide, it is a significant public health burden, both in women of reproductive age as well as in pregnant women,” said Girard. Studies have shown that moderate anemia increases risk of hemorrhage and may also increase the risk of sepsis, while severe anemia has been shown to directly contribute to maternal mortality. Targeted interventions can help reduce these risks greatly. “For every one gram per deciliter increase in hemoglobin level, you can reduce maternal mortality by approximately 25 percent, but the mechanisms by which this occurs are not well elucidated,” noted Girard.
“We need to include women not as just targets of nutritional interventions, but as beneficiaries in their own health,” said Girard. Key nutritional interventions such as micronutrient supplementation, fortification, and behavior change communication can help to improve not only fetal, infant, and child health, but can also reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. In addition, Girard recommended the following strategies to achieve greater impact:
Together, these strategies can help improve access to nutrition and health services, as well as adequate food for women throughout their lives. “We need to integrate health and nutrition – they are actually the same pillar, complementing each other,” Girard concluded.- Improve nutrition throughout the life cycle, not just during pregnancy
- Look for alternate strategies for micronutrient delivery
- Integrate maternal nutrition into food security and agricultural strategies
- Collect indicators specific to women’s health impacts
- Recognize and address gender bias
Photo Credit: “Bangladesh mothers, kids,” courtesy of flickr user Bread for the World. -
The Role of Population Dynamics in Climate Adaptation
›December 21, 2010 // By Wilson Center StaffThis post is a synthesis of a panel discussion at the UNFPA Population Dynamics and Climate Change conference in Mexico City with Marcia Castro, of the Harvard School of Public Health; Heather D’Agnes, of USAID; and Lori Hunter, of the University of Colorado at Boulder.
It is well-known that environmental change — including climate change — has important impacts on human health. However, it is less well understood how health systems shape the responses of individuals and households to environmental change. Population dynamics — such as fertility, migration, and mortality and morbidity — influence community health and greatly affect community resilience in the face of environmental changes, including the capacity to adapt to climate change.
Mortality and Morbidity
Morbidity and mortality dramatically shape a household’s ability to adapt its livelihood strategies to a changing climate. For example, in areas of high HIV prevalence, such as sub-Saharan Africa, adult mortality seriously undermines livelihood options. In the face of such loss, the household’s reliance on local natural resources intensifies. If environmental change reduces the amount of available resources, the household has fewer options for energy and sustenance.
Morbidity also affects adaptive capacity, and morbidity itself can be shaped by environmental change. For example, environmental scarcity can increase poverty, which can lead to an increase in risky transactional sex, further fueling the HIV pandemic. Malnutrition resulting from drought and environmental shocks can suppress the immune systems of HIV-positive people, making them more vulnerable to illness and less able to adapt to other external changes.
Fertility and Family Planning
Healthier households are more resilient households, so increasing access to health services, including reproductive health services, is essential for building adaptive capacity. High fertility poses challenges to a family’s livelihood and has negative health effects on women and children. Providing reproductive health services is an effective way to improve the capacity of these vulnerable groups to adapt to climate change. For example, a recent study argues that lowering fertility rates in the Himalayan region could increase community resilience to the predicted fluctuations in water quantity.
However, there is a high level of unmet demand for contraception across the globe. How can community adaptation programs help meet this need? Importantly, research from the Philippines suggests that integrating population, health, and environment programs in a package approach to community development is more effective than single-sector interventions. Including family planning and reproductive health services in community-based climate adaptation programs could not only more effectively meet the community’s needs, but could also improve its adaptive capacity better than health or climate programs alone.
Migration
Another population process, migration, can both impact health and affect the capacity for adaptation. For example, internal migration in the Brazilian Amazon appears associated with the spread of malaria, which negatively impacts the adaptive capacity of households. To mitigate climate change’s health impacts, states should more effectively plan settlements and health systems, including health impact assessments for infrastructure and development projects. (Editor’s Note – northern Nigeria and Niger present another example of similar climate-related migratory patterns that significantly impact health and economic resilience.)
In summary, the scientific evidence is clear that population dynamics — such as mortality, fertility, and migration — and environmental trends are linked. Projects intended to improve a community’s ability to adapt to a changing climate should consider and address these linkages in their design and implementation.
Sources: Foundation for Environmental Conservation, UNFPA, USAID.
Photo Credit: “Toureg family in Niger,” courtesy of flickr user ILRI. -
Emily Gertz, Momentum Magazine
U of M’s ‘Momentum’ on Water Scarcity, Population, and Climate Change
›December 20, 2010 // By Wilson Center StaffExcerpted from the original article, “Water Tight,” by Emily Gertz in the University of Minnesota’s Momentum magazine.
The next time you stop off at a pub for a quick bite, think about this: It took around 630 gallons of water to make your burger. Your pint of beer used around 20 gallons. Manufacturing your blue jeans and t-shirt drank up about 1,218 gallons of water: 505 and 713 gallons, respectively.
Total: nearly 1,900 gallons of water – and that’s without fries on the side.
These quantities are the “water footprint” of each product: the total amount of freshwater used in its manufacture, including producing the ingredients.
For many products, that footprint is Paul Bunyan–sized: With water seemingly cheap and plentiful, there has been little incentive to try to keep it small.
But today, that’s changing. Even though much of the water we use for growing food and making products is replenished by natural hydrological cycles, freshwater will be less reliable and available in the coming century. Population growth is increasing both demand for water and pollution of potable supplies. At the same time, climate change is disrupting historical precipitation patterns, shrinking freshwater sources such as glaciers and snowpack, and creating unprecedented droughts and floods.
According to an analysis published in Nature in September 2010, the freshwater supplies of most of the world’s population are at high risk.
“If you look at the global distribution of people and the global distribution of threat levels to human water security, the places with the highly threatened water security represent about 80 percent of the world population, over four billion people,” says study co-author Peter McIntyre, assistant professor at the University of Wisconsin’s Center for Limnology.
In the United States, a 2010 analysis by the consulting firm Tetra Tech for the Natural Resources Defense Council found that more than 1,100 counties – fully two-thirds of all counties in the lower 48 states – will contend with higher water risk by 2050 due to climate change alone. Fourteen states can expect extremely serious problems with freshwater supply, including Florida, Mississippi, New Mexico, and California.
It’s not surprising, then, that businesses are increasingly considering their corporate water footprint. They encounter water risk – and opportunities to reduce it – at many stages of their operations, from growing crops to running retail stores. Factoring such risks into their present and future planning is helping companies present themselves as good environmental stewards to the public, and potentially reduce risks to their earnings from water scarcity.
“It’s often said that water is going to be the oil of the 21st century, in the sense of becoming an ever-more scarce commodity,” McIntyre says. “In the grand scheme of things, you can live without oil, but you can’t live without water. Water is fundamental for all life. And that’s certainly true for business as well.”
Continue reading on Momentum.
Sources: Natural Resources Defense Council, Nature.
Photo Credit: Adapted from “Lake Hume at 4%,” courtesy of flickr user suburbanbloke. -
Too Few or Too Many? Joel E. Cohen on How Education Can Address Both
›December 17, 2010 // By Wilson Center Staff“So which is it: Is it too many people or is it too few people?” asks Joel E. Cohen of the Rockefeller University in this interview with ECSP. “The truth is, both are real problems, and the fortunate thing is that we have enough information to do much better in addressing both of those problems than we are doing – we may not have silver bullets, but we’re not using the knowledge we have.”
Cohen has studied the population-resources equation, trying to determine how best to support global demographics in a sustainable, equitable way. He points to the cross-cutting power of education to both curb rapid population growth in the developing world and ease the cost of aging populations in the developed.
“On continuing rapid population growth, we know that more education is associated with reductions in fertility,” said Cohen. And when combined with voluntary family planning, it’s also cheap “compared to the costs of having children that are not well cared for – the opportunity costs,” he said.
On aging, “we know that people who are educated well in their youth – both at primary, secondary, and especially tertiary levels – have better health in old age,” said Cohen. “So the costs of an aging population are diminished when people are educated. They take better care of themselves and they have options – they can use their minds as their bodies mature.”
Education is a long-term solution, but shorter-term policy options, like France’s bump of the retirement age to 62 that prompted rioting this fall, will also be necessary. “Sixty-two is only a way station,” Cohen said. “The retirement age has to move up, because people are living longer, they’re more productive, they’re in better health, and they’re going to have to keep working to take care of themselves.” -
Judith Bruce on Empowering Adolescent Girls in Post-Earthquake Haiti
›“The most striking thing about post-conflict and post-disaster environments is that what lurks there is also this extraordinary opportunity,” said Judith Bruce, a senior associate and policy analyst with the Population Council’s Poverty, Gender, and Youth program. Bruce has spent time this year working with the Haiti Adolescent Girls Network (HAGN), a coalition of humanitarian groups conducting workshops focused on the educational, health, and security needs of the country’s vulnerable female youth population.
Gender-based violence has long been an issue in Haiti, but the problem became even more pronounced in the wake of the January earthquake. HAGN has sought to address the problem by concentrating its community-based programming on “high priority” groups, including girls who are disabled, serve as de facto heads of households, or are aged 10-14.
Bruce asserted that protecting and empowering young girls is critical because upon reaching puberty, “their access to a safe world shrinks dramatically.” With the post-disaster environment adding another layer of challenge, she said “there could be no ambiguity in anyone’s mind that we have to create dedicated spaces for girls who, at least for a few hours a week, feel secure to be themselves and to plan for their long-term safety as well as their development.”
The “Pop Audio” series is also available as podcasts on iTunes.
