In his speech on the world’s struggle against poverty at the 19th G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro in November 2024, China’s President Xi Jinping, cited his country’s standout track record of wealth creation, and exulted: “If China can make it, other developing countries can make it too.

China’s promise to guide the Global South on the path toward modernization has included support for green and sustainable development. Yet its pledge also holds a central environmental challenge, especially as the share of global greenhouse gas emissions from emerging markets and developing economies continues to increase. 

Li Meini, a junior high school student in Beijing’s Tiantongyuan Community, was seeing more news about wildfires, floods and heat waves and couldn’t stop worrying about the safety of the local wildlife. “…Animals have nowhere to escape from wildfires and floods…their homes are destroyed in an instant. Humans have technology to reduce the impact of climate warming. I hope these technologies can also help wild animals better survive.”

A quiet agricultural revolution is on the horizon in parts of China. Innovative anaerobic digestion techniques are revolutionizing agriculture by transforming livestock manure into organic fertilizer and clean biogas energy. As these technologies significantly lower carbon emissions, they can set a precedent for sustainable farming practices across China and the world.

China’s power sector makes up the lion’s share of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, but rising methane emissions from rice farming and livestock, nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizers, and CO2 from food transport could all hinder China’s progress toward its 2060 carbon neutrality goal. Chinese policymakers could rein in agri-food emissions by modifying existing climate plans and policies. Climate-smart agriculture is not only a mitigation strategy, but also an adaptation strategy to intensifying extreme weather events like heatwaves and typhoons.

As world leaders prepare to gather for the November UN climate change summit in Glasgow, all eyes are on China. As the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, the emission reduction commitments China makes in its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)—a country’s stated climate goals under the Paris Agreement—will provide direction for domestic climate actions and inform international climate cooperation efforts. In a recent Green Development Program report, we examine how China performed under its 2015 NDC and reflect on the targets and supporting policies we might expect to see in its second NDC. The good news? We see huge potential for China to go bigger and bolder in its climate action.