When the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) declared the beginning of an El Niño event on June 8, 2023, the recurring climate pattern featured in headlines all over the world as media outlets sought to cover its anticipated impacts.

A recent Water @ Wilson event –“The Significance of the Coming El Niño: Understanding the Science and Preparing for its Impacts”—brought together experts at the Wilson Center to explain the complex science behind El Niño and explore its regional implications. The speakers also surveyed the policy tools at our disposal to prepare for its significant climate effects.

At a recent Brookings Institution event titled Climate Change, Food Insecurity, and Migration in the Middle East, Ferid Belhaj, Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) at the World Bank, observed that the MENA region relies heavily on grain exported from both Ukraine and Russia. When the 2022 invasion reduced grain exports to a trickle, the entire region suffered heavily.

The technology that is an essential part of clean energy and the future economy relies heavily on critical minerals. Electric vehicles (EVs), computers, wind turbines, and even defense technology require large mineral inputs, raising concerns over the stability of supply chains and the ability to meet growing demand. An IEA report published in 2021 predicts that demand for critical minerals will escalate over the next two decades, with increases of “40 percent for copper and rare earth elements, 60 to 70 percent for nickel and cobalt, and almost 90 percent for lithium.”

Climate change’s ripples reach every corner of the globe, but nowhere is their geopolitical impact more pronounced than in China’s relations with the United States. This is especially the case as the undisputed security risks posed to both nations by climate change become intertwined with broader arcs of political, economic, and military competition on both sides.

By 2050, two-thirds of the population will face some form of water stress. As a fundamental part of life, water—or a lack of it—influences other parts of life, including conflict. In fact, as author Marcus King notes in his new book, Weaponizing Water: Water Stress and Islamic Extremist Violence in Africa and the Middle East, there is a “correlation between the spheres of influence of violent extremist organizations (VEOs) and the driest lands or areas of sparse vegetation in some of the most arid regions on earth.”

The first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is also a reminder of the long-term challenges faced by that embattled country, including one of the most important resources for human survival: water.

“For Ukrainians, water has been under fire for nearly a decade,” observed Erika Weinthal, Professor of Environmental Policy and Public Policy at Duke University, at a recent Water @ Wilson Series event: “Water and Conflict: Updates from the Russia-Ukraine War,” co-hosted by the U.S. Water Partnership.