On January 22, Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Daniel R. Coats released the National Intelligence Strategy (NIS) for 2019, which represents a departure from the last such strategy. While the previous 2014 National Intelligence Strategy specifically noted that food, water, and energy resource insecurity contribute to instability, the 2019 NIS does not mention these concerns beyond a single reference to climate change and resource scarcity as “pressure points.”

The 2014 strategy included a section entitled, “Natural Resources” which included the following:

Competition for scarce resources, such as food, water, or energy, will likely increase tensions within and between states and could lead to more localized or regional conflicts, or exacerbate government instability.

Its “Global Environment” section noted:

Many governments will face challenges to meet even the basic needs of their people as they confront demographic change, resource constraints, effects of climate change, and risks of global infectious disease outbreaks. These effects are threat multipliers that will aggravate stressors abroad such as poverty, environmental degradation, political instability, and social tensions—conditions that can enable terrorist activity and other forms of violence. The risk of conflict and mass atrocities may increase.”

Dropped Topics

In contrast, the 2019 NIS does not feature a natural resources section and only briefly references environmental security concerns in the following excerpt:

Pressure points include growing influxes of migrants, refugees, and internally displaced persons fleeing conflict zones; areas of intense economic or other resource scarcity; and areas threatened by climate changes, infectious disease outbreaks, or transnational criminal organizations.

The Department of Defense (DoD) has made numerous statements about climate security including the most recent report on risk to DoD infrastructure, which found, “The effects of a changing climate are a national security issue with potential impacts to Department of Defense missions, operational plans, and installations.” The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the same office which produced the 2019 National Intelligence Strategy, made a much more comprehensive assessment of the threat environment in its 2018 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. That document, published by DNI Coats, explicitly states that “the impacts of the long-term trends toward a warming climate, more air pollution, biodiversity loss, and water scarcity are likely to fuel economic and social discontent—and possibly upheaval.”

Given that the “foundational mission objectives” of ODNI include “anticipatory intelligence,” it is concerning that climate change is not elaborated upon, and that the Arctic is not mentioned, despite its increasing strategic importance to the United States.

It is not entirely surprising that the current National Intelligence Strategy does not cover security concerns linked to climate change, biodiversity loss, ocean acidification, and an opening Arctic because it takes its cues from the administration’s priorities as identified through the National Security Strategy. The 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS), the first of the Trump administration, was the first NSS to omit references to climate change as a security threat since President George W. Bush first included it in 2002.

National Security Priority

In response to this conspicuous omission, a bipartisan contingent of 106 members of the House wrote an open letter in January 2018, urging the President to recognize climate change as a national security priority: “As global temperatures become more volatile, sea levels rise, and landscapes change, our military installations and our communities are increasingly at risk of devastation. It is imperative that the United States address this growing geopolitical threat.”

Part of ODNI’s duties—both to American security and to speaking truth to power—is to not allow for intelligence, including science, to be politicized. The incongruity between the massive amounts of scientific literature speaking to the destabilizing implications of a warming climate—which will radiate across society and impact every sector—and the limitations of the priorities identified by this administration, are cause for concern for the national security community.

A changing climate is inherently intertwined with the security priorities identified by the Trump administration. One such priority, cybersecurity, could be affected by climate change as sea level rise threatens internet infrastructure.  The new era of great power competition cannot be addressed without understanding the critical importance of the Arctic and US strategic interests in that region, as well as access to natural resources in fragile parts of the world. In combating the trafficking of narcotics the focus has been mainly on the US southern border, without much understanding of our Northern border exposures, or the factors that are contributing to migration.

Secretary of Defense James Mattis stated in 2018 that “the  effects  of  a  changing  climate—such  as  increased maritime  access  to  the  Arctic,  rising  sea  levels,  desertification, among others—impact our security situation.” He also recognized that “climate change is a challenge that requires a broader, whole-of government response.” That comprehensive government response will occur only if analysts and policymakers receive cues to prioritize climate change research, mitigation, and adaptation. Documents like the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and National Intelligence Strategy provide those cues by articulating priorities, making the presence of their discussion of climate change as a threat multiplier that much more important.