Global attention is understandably focused on Syrian refugees, but the migration crisis in Europe is part of a bigger trend that climate and social scientists have been warning about for years.

Roughly two-thirds of those who have applied for asylum in the European Union this year are from countries other than Syria. Many come from conflict-ridden places, such as Afghanistan and Iraq, but many too are fleeing challenges related to unemployment, environmental change, and population growth across the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa.

A village in Morocco, where I served as a Peace Corps volunteer from 2008 to 2010 and recently returned, is a microcosm of the forces affecting small communities reliant on natural resources across this part of the world.

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In 2011, high in the Atlas Mountains, a storm triggered a flood that swept down on the small Berber village of Agoudim, Morocco. The valley’s river overflowed its banks and caused chaos. All the crops near the river were lost; the only road into town suffered so much damage it was permanently closed; many houses were completely flooded.

Hassein Ouzayd, a resident of Agoudim, told me that overgrazing and firewood harvesting caused the devastating floods, but the phenomenon is also connected to global climate change.

It may be counterintuitive, but these kinds of flash floods are a symptom of the slow creep of the Sahara Desert, which like many deserts around the world is expanding. According to research by Janpeter Schilling of the University of Hamburg and colleagues, precipitation in Morocco could decline by as much as 20 percent by 2050. At the same time, temperatures are likely to rise by two to three degrees Centigrade. When the rains do fall, they come all at once. There is little topsoil or vegetation in the Atlas and Rif Mountains to absorb the deluge and the water runs straight downhill. Flash floods killed 31 people in 2014.

Flooding is just one way desertification threatens the livelihoods of rural Moroccans. Agriculture, which provides 44 percent of labor opportunities and generates 19 percent of gross domestic product, is most at risk. Access to firewood and water are also at risk.

Population and economic growth have added to the pressure on the environment. Though not growing as quickly as it once was, Morocco’s population has more than doubled over the last 40 years. Extensive grazing, expansion of agriculture, and deforestation for firewood have degraded soil cover, leading to erosion and loss of soil fertility.

The line between old problems caused by environmental degradation and new problems caused by global climate change is blurry, but all signs point to big changes for rural Moroccans and other people living in marginal environments.

Though the exact reasons for why people move are difficult to pin down, the UN has estimated that by 2020 some 50 million “environmental refugees” may be on the move around the world. Three million Moroccans currently live in southern and western Europe and that number is certain to grow as young Moroccans, who make up 38 percent of the population, find it harder and harder to make a living as farmers.

The Amazigh

The Amazigh, also known as Berbers, migrated to Northern Africa before 10,000 BC. Although much of Morocco has adopted an Arab identity, the Amazigh maintain a unique language and culture in parts of the country. Rural areas – especially around the Sahara, Rif Mountains, and Middle, High, and anti-Atlas Mountains – have resisted Arabization. Much of the “Arab Spring” protests in Morocco centered around an Amazigh independence movement.

Many Amazigh areas have undergone a rapid transformation in the last 20 years. Small villages like Agoudim that were nearly completely isolated have gained electricity, cellphone service, improved access to health care and education, and roads that connect them with the outside world.

But Amazigh villages remain the most marginalized in Morocco with economies based on semi-subsistence agriculture, pastoralism, and tourism. According to Korbinian Freier, an environmental scientist with the University of Hamburg, goat and sheep herding is the primary source of income for 30 percent of people in southern Morocco. Herders walk their animals dozens and dozens of miles, often staying away from home for weeks at a time.

Ismail Ouraich, an agricultural researcher from the city of Goulmima, says sheep and goats are more important than just the income they generate: “[People] use livestock as bank accounts,” he told me. “If you have leftover, you invest it in your herd. And if you need the money, you bring the goat to the butcher for money.”

Changing climactic conditions could lower agriculture productivity in the region by 30 to 40 percent, according to Schilling et al. “The sector is dependent on rainfall, especially small and medium farmers, specifically with cereal crops,” says Ouraich. “This problem is structural in Morocco – we’re still struggling to modernize the sector in order to reduce reliance on weather effects.”

When Adapting Means Leaving

Experts are considering a number ways for Moroccans to adapt to changing conditions.

In 2008, the government launched the Plan Maroc Vert, or Green Morocco Plan, to modernize agriculture by improving productivity and resource efficiency. Gabriella Izzi, the team leader for the World Bank’s agriculture support in Morocco, says the plan will improve farmers’ resilience to climate change by providing guidance on managing water use and switching to more resilient crops, such as olives. Additionally, the plan is intended to reduce soil erosion by helping farmers switch to “no-till” farming methods that preserve more topsoil.

Unfortunately, the most vulnerable farmers are often unable to tap into these new streams of financing due to lack of credit history. Additionally, the Green Morocco Plan focuses mainly on agriculture and only indirectly addresses issues related to herding, as have plagued the Amazigh.

There are small-scale projects that target soil conservation, including several involving Peace Corps Volunteers. From 2011 to 2013, Sara del Fierro worked on a project in collaboration with the Moroccan High Commission on Water and Forests, Toubkal National Park, and the Commune of Ijoukak to reduce erosion, flooding, and landslides near Mount Toubkal by stabilizing river banks and reforestation.

Logan Sander worked on an efficient woodstoves project supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development from 2008 to 2010. According to research by Freier, eliminating firewood collection could produce soil conservation benefits high enough to offset losses from climate change in some areas. Despite two years of work, Sander was only able to convince one business in Imichil to switch to an efficient woodstove. Accustomed to their traditional stoves, people were skeptical of a foreign technology pushed by an American.

Changing engrained behavior in rural areas represents an enormous challenge, especially in the case of publicly owned environmental resources. “It’s a collective action problem, it’s the tragedy of the commons,” says Ouraich. “Nobody has the incentive to do something about it.”

I spoke to Driss Ouabess, a resident of Agoudim, in my return visit. He started a small hotel and guide service in an effort to diversify his income. If people can make money from sources that don’t degrade the land, it will reduce pressure on the environment. The hotel is growing in popularity, but in an isolated place like Agoudim, Driss is unable to attract enough tourists to stop farming altogether.

Environmental and demographic changes are affecting Amazigh traditions and a way of life that has existed for millennia. Rural Moroccans are resourceful and have always dealt with harsh conditions, but climate change is testing their resilience and many are deciding that their best option is simply to move.

The Amazigh and other marginalized groups will look to Europe to escape the advancing Sahara Desert. “Europe is already overwhelmed by the refugees from Syria,” says Freier. “If climate change has a large impact and people are free to choose, this refugee wave will increase.”