“With current neglect of family planning, the UN’s recent projection of a 2100 world population of up to 12.3 billion is a possibility,” says a report from the University of California, San Francisco’s Bixby Center for Global Reproductive Health. Increased voluntary family planning efforts are needed, the authors contend, to meet existing demand for contraceptives, stabilize the threat of global food insecurity, and reduce carbon emissions that contribute to climate change.

The report points to research that shows investments in family planning and reproductive health have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by 16 to 29 percent of the amount needed by 2050 to avoid dangerous levels of climate change. The authors also compare the estimated annual expenditures needed to meet family planning needs in developing countries ($9.4 billion) to the that needed to ensure food security in developing countries between now and 2050 ($209 billion). While other initiatives, like oil divestment or restructuring agriculture models, require huge down payments to combat climate change and food insecurity, the report argues that a modest commitment to increased family planning funding could make a substantial change in both arenas.

Supply and Demand

Such investment would come at a critical time for food security. An estimated 11 percent of the world’s population was chronically underfed in 2014 and climate change is threatening production in many countries. The world’s 7 billion people are likely to swell to around 9 billion by 2050, with most of the growth coming in already-stressed nations. To meet the demands of a larger, more affluent, more urban population, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization estimates food production must increase 50 to 70 percent by 2050.

Meanwhile there is a large gap between the desire and ability to use family planning tools – also known as “unmet need” – among women in many of the most rapidly growing and most food insecure areas. At least 225 million women in developing countries want to delay or stop childbearing but are not using modern contraceptives. In the Sahel, where per capita crop yield has decreased by 13 percent in the last five years and total population could balloon from 135 million today to 330 million by 2050, “unmet desire for family planning” ranges between 16 and 37 percent, the report says. If this gap were filled, an estimated 52 million unintended pregnancies could be avoided globally every year. But if family planning efforts are not able to keep pace with population growth, unmet need is projected to grow even more.

By expanding access to family planning, the world could experience a decrease in food demand as well as in harmful emissions caused by human consumption that lead to climate change and extreme weather events. Livestock and agriculture for food make up 30 percent of the world’s carbon emissions and have a substantial role in climate change. As the authors write, “worldwide meat production alone emits more greenhouse gases than all forms of global transportation or industrial processes.”

The relationship between family planning, food security, and climate change also has important implications for security. Environmental change and consumption are straining natural resource bases, which can lead to social or political instability and even conflict. When a state experiences instability, it is more likely to face food insecurity. Conversely, food insecurity can create or exacerbate instability. A decrease in food demand also means less stress on water and energy resources, as water, food production, and industry often interact in a way in which a demand on one sector places strain on the other two.

A Multifaceted Effect

The basic need for more voluntary family planning has been well-documented – it is a human right.

The United Nations projects world population will hit 10.9 billion people by 2100 in its latest medium variant scenario. But this number is only relevant if growth levels in a relatively small number of developing countries decrease at the same rate as they have elsewhere in the world. The UN predicts total demand for family planning will increase by 40 percent in the next 15 years alone. If family planning investments remain stagnant or become even more lackluster, the total world population could therefore swell to a staggering 12.3 billion by 2100.

Current family planning needs already face a $5.3 billion a year gap, according to the report. To fill this, the authors recommend a $3.5 billion annual investment from foreign aid donors, with the rest covered by developing country governments. The report argues that family planning – while not an individual Sustainable Development Goal itself – provides hefty contributions to other SDGs, including food security, sustainable agriculture, women’s empowerment, and action on climate change. In this way, using funds set aside for any of the 17 SDGs for family planning would be a sound investment. In addition, increased use of family planning can mold countries’ age structures so they have a chance to receive a “demographic bonus” (also known as the “demographic dividend”), improving economic productivity as well.

The authors call on food and climate leaders to use their influence to support family planning and reproductive health efforts. “Investment in international family planning alone will not solve the problems of food insecurity and climate change,” they write, “but it can make an important and substantial contribution to their solutions at a lower cost than most other strategies.”

In addition to being enjoyable best gigadat casinos they can also help you understand the rules of the games.